Pakistan heads to the polls on Thursday for an election that analysts say will be among the least credible in the country’s 76-year history, one that comes at a particularly turbulent time for the nation.
For nearly half of Pakistan’s existence, the military ruled directly. Even under civilian governments, military leaders have wielded enormous power, ushering in politicians they favored and pushing out those who stepped out of line.
This will be only the third democratic transition between political governments in Pakistan’s history. And it is the first national election since former prime minister Imran Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote in 2022. Mr Khan’s ouster — which he accused the military of orchestrating, although powerful generals deny — sparked a political crisis that has engaged the nation with nuclear weapons for the past two years.
Thursday’s vote is the culmination of a highly contentious election season in which analysts say the military sought to neutralize Mr Khan’s widespread support and pave the way to victory for the party of his rival, the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
Here’s what you need to know.
How was the campaign?
Over the past two years, Pakistanis have turned out in droves to protest the behind-the-scenes role they believe the military played in Mr Khan’s overthrow. The generals have responded forcefully, arresting Mr. Khan’s allies and supporters and working to cripple his party ahead of the vote.
While the military has often interfered in elections to clear the way for its preferred candidates, analysts say this crackdown has been more visible and widespread than others.
This has also made this election perhaps the most silent in Pakistan in decades. Streets that would normally be filled with political gatherings have been left empty. For weeks, many were convinced that the election would not even take place on the scheduled date. A common refrain among Pakistanis is that this is a “choice” – not an election – as many believe it is clear that the military has predetermined the winner.
Who’s running?
Some 128 million voters will be able to vote for a new Parliament, which will then choose a new prime minister after the election.
There are 266 seats to fill in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, with an additional 70 seats reserved for women and minorities. If no party wins an absolute majority – which is considered highly likely – then the one with the largest share of seats in parliament can form a coalition government.
Three main parties dominate politics in Pakistan: the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
Mr Khan, the PTI leader, has been notably absent from the campaign: He was arrested in August and has since been sentenced to multiple prison terms for various offenses and barred from public office for a decade. Candidates from his party say they have been detained, forced to denounce the party and subjected to intimidation campaigns.
Most election observers expect a victory for the PMLN, Mr Sharif’s party. A three-time prime minister, Mr Sharif built his political reputation on reviving economic growth. He has repeatedly clashed with the military after pushing for more political control of the government, only to be favored once again in this election.
The PPP is led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in 2007. The party is expected to win some seats in the south, where it has a power base, and will likely form part of a coalition government led by of Sharif.
What’s at stake?
Pakistan’s next government will inherit a host of problems. The economy is in shambles, terrorist attacks have rekindled and relations with neighbors — particularly Afghanistan, which is ruled by the Taliban — are strained.
The cost of living has soared in Pakistan, where inflation last year hit a record high of nearly 40 percent. Meanwhile, gas outages and power outages are frequent occurrences for the country’s 240 million residents. Pakistan had to turn to the International Monetary Fund for bailouts to keep its economy afloat and shore up its foreign reserves. It also relied on funding from wealthy allies such as China and Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, extremist violence in Pakistan has increased since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Much of it has been carried out by the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP — an ally and ideological duo of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
This has fueled tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with Pakistani officials accusing the Taliban of offering the Pakistani Taliban a safe haven on Afghan soil, a claim Taliban officials deny. Those tensions appeared to boil over last year when Pakistan ordered all undocumented foreigners to leave the country by November 1, a move that has mainly affected Afghans.
How will the vote be conducted?
A day before the polls, two separate explosions outside polling stations in an insurgency-hit area of Pakistan killed at least 22 people. The blasts were the latest in a series of attacks on election-related activities, including the targeting of candidates, throughout the campaign period.
In light of such security threats, authorities have designated half of Pakistan’s roughly 90,000 polling stations as “sensitive” or “more sensitive” and have deployed the military for their security.
Polls will close at 5 p.m. Preliminary results are expected late Thursday night, but it could take up to three days for all votes to be officially counted.
Once the count is finalized, members of Parliament will convene to form the government and choose the next prime minister. The choice of the prime minister is expected at the end of February.
Zia ur-Rehman contributed to the report.
