Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is on a whirlwind trip to Berlin and Paris on Friday in a bid to shore up European support at a critical time in his country’s fight against Russia, with support from the United States faltering and Ukraine to be in desperate need of more weapons.
Mr Zelensky is expected to sign security deals with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France during visits to the two leaders’ capitals, ahead of an expected appearance at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
European leaders are scrambling to offer more support to Ukraine amid growing concerns that a $60 billion United States aid package that passed the Senate could still be overturned by House Republicans.
The security deals are among a series of such commitments pledged by all Group of 7 members and several other countries to Ukraine at a meeting of NATO allies in Vilnius, Lithuania, last year, a move seen as an attempt to offset their reluctance to carry Kiev quickly joined the alliance.
The agreements are intended to provide Ukraine with sufficient security assistance to deter further Russian aggression – including key arms deliveries, troop training and intelligence sharing – and to strengthen Ukraine’s economic stability and help it carry out political and economic reforms.
Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s former foreign minister, said the security deals promised by G-7 members were the best his country had achieved since it gained independence in 1991. But he noted they did not bind allies to fight on behalf of Ukraine and instead pledge only to help Ukraine in the event of a future attack.
Through these agreements, Mr. Klimkin said, Ukraine’s allies “will deliver what they can and when they can, which is fundamentally different from delivering what is needed and when it is needed.”
“Everything in these deals will be delivered based on political decisions,” he added. “That’s a big if.”
Ukraine is also in dire need of ammunition, particularly artillery shells, ahead of what security experts say could be a critical year in its fight against Russia. Ukraine needs an “ammunition bailout,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.
“Zelensky knows who his most important allies are at the moment — Solz and Macron — but both have to take the next step,” Mr. Klein-Brokhoff said. “Europeans stand at a fork in the road: When and if the United States falls by the wayside as a financial backer, can it step up?”
Since October, European Union countries and institutions have provided nearly $5 billion in military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine — three times as much as the United States over the same period, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Total aid given by the bloc has surpassed that of the United States since August.
This month, European Union leaders pledged 50 billion euros, about $54 billion, in new aid to Ukraine.
However, to fully replace US military aid this year, according to the Kiel Institute’s assessment, Europe would still need to “double the current level and pace of arms aid”.
Chancellor Scholz was clear that even as Europe steps up its efforts, it may be impossible to sustain Ukraine’s military campaign without American support.
“Let’s not sweat it: Support from the United States is essential to the question of whether Ukraine will be able to defend its country,” Mr. Soltz said after meeting with President Biden in Washington last week.
Germany, once widely criticized as a laggard in military support for Ukraine, is now second only to Washington in what it has provided. In November, Berlin announced it would double its support to $8.5 billion in 2024.
The chancellery is now pushing other countries in Europe to share the burden and offer more arms deliveries, arguing that it cannot offer more.
Smaller nations such as Estonia and Latvia, which both feel threatened by neighboring Russia, followed suit with announcements last month of new military aid packages, including drones and artillery weapons. However, a large gap remains between European aid commitments and actual deliveries.
European Union countries and institutions have pledged more than $150 billion in aid since Russia’s full-scale invasion began nearly two years ago, but have released only half that amount, the Kiel Institute said. Instead, the United States has provided more than 90 percent of the $73 billion in aid pledged.
Last month, Britain, which is not a member of the bloc, was the first G-7 country to sign one of the binding security deals with Ukraine. It includes cooperation in the defense industry, as well as in cyber security and maritime security, and states that in the event of a future attack by Russia, both countries “will consult within 24 hours to determine the measures needed to counter or prevention of aggression”.
France, which has been criticized for sending too little economic and military aid to Ukraine, has sought in recent weeks to emphasize its continued support for Kiev. Mr Macron said last month that his country would send Ukraine 40 long-range Scalp missiles, which have proven critical for striking deep behind enemy lines, as well as “hundreds of bombs”.
To meet Ukraine’s demands, France has also halved the production time of Caesar self-propelled howitzers and plans to produce 78 such guns this year. France has said it will donate 12 of them to Ukraine, while Kiev has already bought six of them with its own funds. French authorities hope other Western allies will help pay the rest.
