ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Warde Manuel is a patient man. Patient to a fault, some might say.
The job of an athletic director, as Manuel sees it, is to avoid knee-jerk reactions. Sports fans are fickle. They want what they want and they want it now. When public pressure is at its highest, Manuel believes in taking a step back, collecting his thoughts and making a clear decision.
“You have to go for the facts,” Manuel said recently. “You can’t overreact to emotions.”
At some point soon, Manuel will need to do that with Juwan Howard. Because facts are facts and emotion cuts both ways.
Everyone at Michigan wants Howard to succeed. He is one of Michigan’s all-time greats. He’s had a rough year, recovering from heart surgery while trying to coach a team in the midst of a major transition. On a human level, it is natural and admirable for Manuel to empathize with the coach he hired.
“I’d be impatient if I wasn’t worried about him,” Manuel said.
If Manuel is true to his word, he should put those feelings aside and look at the Michigan men’s basketball program as a whole. What he will see is a team that is going nowhere, 8-18 and 3-12 in the Big Ten after Saturday’s 73-63 loss to Michigan State.
Some facts to consider:
Saturday’s loss dropped Michigan to 5-8 at home. In a league where teams win 81 percent of their home games, Michigan is the only team with a losing record. Michigan has blown halftime leads in eight of its losses and is 9-20 in games decided by single digits over the past two seasons. And then there’s the off-court stuff: the melee at Wisconsin two years ago, the incident with strength coach Jon Sanderson this year, the academic suspension that has sidelined point guard Doug McDaniel for road games.
Michigan seems to alternate between lackluster performances and games like Saturday’s, with tough losses coming close at halftime but then slipping away. The Wolverines committed 22 turnovers and were held scoreless for the final seven minutes, a familiar ending for a team with a long history of late-game collapses.
Howard then responded defiantly when asked if he could envision himself sitting out the postseason, given his heart surgery in September and ongoing rehab.
“That lets me know you really don’t know me,” said Howard, now in his fifth season. “If you get to know me a little better and learn my story, wherever I’ve been, I’ve always faced the noise and rolled up my sleeves and found solutions. We will build on solutions as we finish this season. Next season is not here. We’re going to finish strong this season.”
Michigan State pulled away for a 10-point win in Ann Arbor on Saturday. (Rick Osentoski/USA Today)
Michigan would owe Howard a $3 million buyout if he is fired after this season. Just a few days ago, Manuel voiced his support for Howard and said he didn’t consider making changes to the show.
Manuel made the comments on the same day Ohio State fired coach Chris Holtmann midway through his seventh season. By comparison, Holtmann was 30-30 and 9-25 in Big Ten games over the last two seasons. Howard is 26-34 and 14-21 over the same span.
Howard has two Sweet 16 championships, an Elite Eight championship and a Big Ten championship on his resume, which Holtmann did not. These achievements are becoming more distant by the day. While it’s unfair to attribute Howard’s early success solely to the program John Beilein built, the trend lines aren’t doing him any favors.
Fans will protest, but there’s a chance to wipe the slate clean and give Howard one more chance to make things right. Howard’s teams were competitive in the Big Ten when they had the right pieces. Michigan had bad luck at the transfer gate, losing Terrence Shannon and Caleb Love to admissions. Howard bears some of the blame for this, but it would be nice to see the team he recruited really take the floor.
That, along with a serious health issue sidelining Howard for the first part of the season, could give Manuel a reason to stick with Howard for another year. Manuel gave a hint of his thinking when he compared this year’s basketball season to Michigan’s 2020 football season, a 2-4 campaign that had many fans calling for Jim Harbaugh to be fired.
Manuel stuck with Harbaugh and gave him a chance to restart the program. Three years later, Harbaugh was holding a national championship trophy in Houston. This situation strengthened Manuel’s belief in second chances.
“(Harbaugh) might have some things to change and adjust to, but he’s a great coach,” Manuel said, recalling his thought process at the time. “That’s what I told people when everyone was saying then that I should be fired because I didn’t fire him. It is ridiculous.”
There is no doubt that Manuel’s patience has paid off, but there is also a danger of overgeneralization. As any Michigan fan can attest, Harbaugh is one of a kind. He also had a winning streak at every stop in his career. Howard is a first-year coach and this improbable season isn’t happening in the midst of a pandemic.
If Michigan keeps Howard, it should be for one reason only: Because he’s the coach that gives Michigan the best chance to succeed. It must be a decision based on facts and the future, not rooted in history or sentimentality.
In essence, Manuel’s comments last week weren’t much different from those he made in January about Howard’s future. But they also came with an acknowledgment that Michigan’s current situation is not acceptable.
“We have to get better,” Manuel said. “He knows it. They know it. Expectations are high.”
In Michigan, Howard has a boss who is willing to be patient. Patience, like time, eventually runs out.
(Top photo: Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
