Portugal’s Socialist Party conceded defeat on Sunday night in a closely-fought national election that ended the party’s eight years in power and reflected the country’s shift to the right, which follows a broader trend in Europe.
This shift was marked by the rise of Chega, an anti-establishment, right-wing party, which catapulted from recent irrelevance to become the third most popular party in Portugal.
The Socialist Party, which has been dogged by a corruption investigation, was working with the Democratic Alliance, a center-right coalition, until late last night, when the Socialist leader admitted at a news conference.
The Socialists and the Democratic Alliance had collected about 29 percent of the vote, with about 99 percent of constituencies having their ballots counted. Abroad polls, which elect four parliamentary seats, had not yet been counted, but Socialist Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos said those polls were unlikely to make up the votes needed to win.
“Everything shows that the Socialist Party did not win the elections,” Mr. Nuno Santos said at the press conference.
His concession cleared the way for Luis Montenegro, the leader of the Social Democratic Party, the largest party in the Democratic Alliance, to form a government. “It seems indisputable that the Democratic Alliance won the election and that the Socialists lost,” Mr Montenegro told a news conference.
Mr Montenegro has said he would not form a coalition with Chega, which opponents accuse of being racist and xenophobic. Experts said this made it likely that he would form a minority government.
The election was one of the last national votes before crucial European Parliament elections in June, which are seen as a barometer of political winds across the continent. Chega’s jump to over 18 percent of the vote this year, up from around 7 percent in 2022, may give a boost to conservative and right-wing parties hoping to make significant gains in EU elections.
“It’s an absolutely historic result,” Chega party leader Andre Ventura told reporters on Sunday night. Mr Ventura, a former TV sports commentator, became known for attacking Portugal’s Roma minority. Brazil’s far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonaro approved his candidacy.
“The Portuguese are defending their identity and their well-being,” said Jordan Bardela, president of France’s far-right National Rally party. wrote to X on Sunday, congratulating Tsega and giving them a “date” at the European Parliament.
Similar messages came from MPs from the far-right parties Alternative for Germany, Vox in Spain, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary and Austria’s Freedom Party.
Chega’s rise represents a new phenomenon in Portugal, where no far-right party has gained significant ground since the end of the military dictatorship in the 1970s, although similar parties have made inroads in recent years in other European countries.
“Portugal is no longer an exception in the panorama of European political parties,” said Marina Costa Lobo, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon, describing a landscape characterized by “the rise of the radical populist right” and the centrality of issues such as immigration .
Like other alternative parties in Europe, experts said, Chega seized on people’s economic concerns and a general sense of insecurity. Portugal’s persistently low wages have failed to keep pace with inflation. House prices have doubled in the last eight years. and people complained about the lack of access to the health care system.
Mr Ventura has promised tax cuts, higher pension payments and stricter immigration rules. Under the banner “Portugal needs a clean-up”, he also campaigned against corruption after the collapse of the former Socialist-led government amid an investigation into lithium exploration concessions.
The prime minister at the time, Antonio Costa, has not been formally charged with any crime but resigned in November, saying the investigation was incompatible with his official role. Mr. Montenegro is most likely to be appointed prime minister by Portugal’s president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, based on preliminary election results. Mr. Montenegro, 51, a lawyer, has also promised tax cuts.
Experts say the election result came in part from Portuguese voters’ desire for something new. “They feel it’s time for a change,” said José Santana Pereira, associate professor of political science at the University Institute of Lisbon.
On Sunday night, Mr Ventura said he was open to forming a government with the Democratic Alliance to give Portugal a “stable government”, although Mr Montenegro had ruled that out during the campaign.
If the Democratic Alliance forms a minority government, experts said it could be short-lived and struggle to pass legislation.
Ms Costa Lobo said any government formed by the Democratic Alliance would have to make piecemeal deals with parties to its left and right to pass legislation.
“It is now up to the politicians to seek the stability that the elections did not provide,” said Ms. Costa Lobo.
