The U.S. warning to Russia ahead of a terrorist attack near Moscow was very specific: Crocus City Hall was a possible Islamic State target, according to U.S. officials.
The warning had the right place, but vague timing, suggesting the attack could take place within days. Indeed, the United States Embassy’s public alert on March 7 warned of possible terrorist attacks in the next two days.
Gunmen stormed the hall on March 22, killing 144 people, the deadliest attack in Russia in nearly 20 years. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack and Russia indicted four men from Tajikistan, accusing them of carrying out the massacre.
But President Vladimir V. Putin and other top officials have continued to claim, without evidence, that Ukraine could have played a role in the attack, a claim that U.S. officials have repeatedly said was unfounded.
News that the US warning specified the exact target of the attack was reported earlier on Tuesday by the Washington Post.
The United States is working intensively to gather intelligence on possible plots by the Islamic State and its Afghanistan-based affiliate, ISIS-Khorasan.
Armed with this information, the United States was able to warn both Russia and Iran, former adversaries, of specific targets that the Islamic State planned to strike. But in both cases the warnings were not heeded, at least not enough to stop the violence.
Some Western officials said Russia paid some heed to the warning issued by the CIA station in Moscow and took steps to investigate the threat. But the new information raises questions about why Russian intelligence failed to maintain higher levels of security. At the time of the attack, there were no additional security measures in place.
Western officials said that when the attack failed to materialize immediately, Russia appeared to have let its guard down, possibly mistaking the American warning for false positives.
On Tuesday, Russia’s state-run Interfax news agency reported that Sergei Naryskin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said the US warning was “too general” and therefore did not allow authorities to identify potential attackers.
The White House, the CIA and other intelligence officials declined to comment on the new details of the warning. But White House officials have previously acknowledged the broad warning given to Russia.
Days before the attack, Mr Putin dismissed the US warnings, saying they were “mere blackmail” and attempts to “intimidate and destabilize our society”.
While Russian security services focused on terrorism decades ago, they are now focusing on domestic opponents of Mr. Putin.
Experts said the crackdown has reduced the focus on terrorism by security agencies, possibly contributing to the failure to use the US warning to prevent the attack.
While it may seem strange at first that the United States would tell an adversary like Russia about an attack, by law US intelligence agencies have a “duty to warn.” If intelligence agencies learn of a potential attack, they must tell the target so they can take steps to protect themselves.
But the war in Ukraine and US military support for Kiev have created tension and suspicion between Moscow and Washington not seen since the Cold War. That appears to have led Mr Putin and his top aides to dismiss the US warning.
