Why do these elections matter?
The vote in Mexico on June 2 will be a landmark election in many ways.
It will be the country’s biggest election in terms of voters and seats. Nearly 99 million people are expected to vote for more than 20,000 local, state and congressional seats, as well as for the presidency.
And for the first time in the country’s history, Mexico will elect a female president, as the first two candidates running for the office are women.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador cannot run again under the constitution and has strongly backed his protégé and colleague in the Morena party, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is committed to continuing the current leader’s agenda. Her main challenger is Xóchitl Gálvez, a vocal critic of the López Obrador administration who vows to return checks and balances to the government.
The winner will be responsible for appointing a new Supreme Court justice. If elected, Ms. Sheinbaum is expected to nominate an ally of Morena’s party, which could change the balance of the court at a time when it has been a counterweight to the López Obrador administration.
Who are the candidates?
The two leading candidates are Ms. Sheinbaum, a physicist and former mayor of Mexico City, and Ms. Gálvez, a former senator and outspoken tech entrepreneur who has often pursued progressive politics.
Several factors favor Ms. Sheinbaum and Morena’s party. above all, perhaps, is Mr. López Obrador’s high approval rating. Ms. Sheinbaum has pledged to continue Mr. López Obrador’s agenda, largely by consolidating some of his major infrastructure projects, implementing austerity measures and maintaining his welfare programs.
Millions of Mexicans have benefited from direct cash transfers and fuel and electricity subsidies under Mr López Obrador’s administration. But it also sought to undermine watchdog and electoral institutions and give the military a huge role in politics and the economy.
Instead, Ms. Gálvez has promised a coalition government with many voices that defends democratic checks and balances. It also proposes the gradual demilitarization of the country, withdrawing the armed forces from civilian duties and refocusing them on fighting organized crime, reflecting its argument that the government has not done enough to quell the high levels of cartel violence plaguing the Mexico.
But many voters see the parties representing Ms. Gálvez as responsible for the legacy of corruption that Mexico has struggled to shake off.
What are the main issues?
Voters see rising cartel violence as a top election issue. With few exceptions, the current government has struggled to control the killings, disappearances and acts of extortion plaguing the country.
Violence did not spare this year’s elections. Dozens of mayoral candidates and local officials have been killed and more targeted each month in what analysts say is an even bloodier election season than 2018.
Corruption is another important issue for voters. For years, levels of corruption in Mexico have remained stable, despite the current government’s promise to end the problem. Public bodies continue to operate without transparency. Federal and state governments have reduced the autonomy of key anti-corruption agencies and cut their budgets and staff.
There is also an immigration crisis. Even as Mexico has increased enforcement and detained more migrants than it has in at least two decades, large numbers of people continue to cross its southern border to try to reach the United States.
Who is expected to win?
So far, Ms. Sheinbaum has dominated the presidential race, with a lead of between 24 and 27 percentage points over Ms. Gálvez.
