US intelligence analysts and officials said on Friday they expect Iran to strike multiple targets inside Israel within the next few days in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Syrian capital on April 1 that killed several senior Iranian commanders.
The United States, Israel’s foremost ally, has military forces in many places in the Middle East. But Iran is not expected to target them to avoid a direct conflict with the United States, according to U.S. and Iranian officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of information gathered on the expected attacks, which they were not authorized to discuss publicly.
Any Iranian strike inside Israel would be a watershed moment in decades of hostilities between the two nations that would likely open a volatile new chapter in the region. Israel and Iran maintain no direct channel of communication, increasing the chances of each side misreading the other’s intentions. And an Iranian attack would raise the risk of a wider conflict that could spill over into many countries, including the United States.
Speaking to reporters on Friday, President Biden said his message to Iran regarding possible military action against Israel would be “don’t do it.”
“We are committed to the defense of Israel,” he added. “We will support Israel. We will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed.”
In anticipation of an Iranian strike, several countries, including the United States, have issued new travel guidelines to their citizens in and around Israel. The Israeli military said its forces were on high alert.
The US State Department on Thursday barred its employees from traveling to large areas of Israel, the first time the US government has restricted the movement of its employees in this way since the war in Gaza began more than six months ago .
On Thursday, Britain told its citizens that they “should consider leaving” Israel and the Palestinian territories “if it is safe to do so.” On Friday, India told its citizens “not to travel to Iran or Israel until further notice.” And France advised the people not to travel to Israel, Iran or Lebanon and evacuated the families of French diplomats from Iran.
Details of Iran’s potential attack on Israel are being closely guarded, but US and Israeli officials have estimated it could involve drones and missiles. Iran has the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones in the Middle East, including cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, experts say, as well as short-range and long-range ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers (about 1,250 miles). .
Iran also has a large inventory of drones that have a range of about 1,200 to 1,550 miles and are capable of flying low to avoid radar.
The exact form an attack on Israel might take, the type of targets involved and the exact timing remain unclear.
The top US military commander for the Middle East, General Michael E. Kurila, traveled to Israel this week to coordinate a response in the event of an Iranian attack, US officials said.
“Our enemies believe they will divide Israel and the United States,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallad said in a statement on Friday after meeting General Kurila. “They connect us and strengthen the relationship between us.”
If Iran attacks, he added, “we will know how to respond.”
On Thursday, Israel’s top military spokesman, Vice Admiral Daniel Haggari, said the armed forces were “on high alert and prepared” for any action by Iran.
Iran has publicly and repeatedly vowed revenge for the April 1 airstrike on its embassy compound in the Syrian capital, Damascus, that killed three generals and four officers from the elite Quds Force, an arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. .
But analysts say Iran’s leaders want to calibrate their response to be large enough to send a message at home and abroad that Iran is not weak in the face of conflict, but not so large that it leads to a full-scale war with Israel or draws an American attack.
In the early months of the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Iranian-backed militias regularly attacked US troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. But after a drone strike killed three Americans in Jordan in January and the United States retaliated, Iran halted attacks by its proxies, fearing a stronger U.S. response.
Despite the clashes and hostile rhetoric, both Iranian and US leaders have made it clear they want to avoid an all-out war.
John F. Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, told reporters on Friday: “We are certainly aware of a very common and credible threat from Iran in terms of possible attacks on Israel, and that they are in constant communication with our Israeli counterparts about to make sure they can defend themselves against these kinds of attacks.”
How Israel would respond to an Iranian attack on its soil is unclear. The Israeli military “continues to closely monitor what is happening in Iran and in different areas,” Herzi Halevi, Israel’s chief of staff, said in a statement on Friday. He added that “our forces are ready and prepared at any time and for any scenario.”
Iran believes it can build international support for retaliation by focusing attention on the attack on its embassy compound and claiming it was merely defending itself, Iranian officials said.
International law generally treats embassies and consulates as exempt from attack. However, Israeli officials maintained that the building they destroyed was diplomatic in name only and was used as a base for the Revolutionary Guards, as evidenced by the high-level commanders meeting there when they were killed.
A Revolutionary Guard general said Iran wanted to exploit the widening rift between Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr. Biden over the conduct of Israel’s war against Hamas — rather than unite them in hostility toward Iran .
The Biden administration has not only criticized the level of death and destruction caused by Israeli forces in Gaza, but has also expressed fears that increased conflict on Israel’s northern border, primarily with Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah, could escalate into a wider regional war.
In an apparent response to international pressure, including from the United States, to do more to alleviate the hunger and deprivation caused by the war in Gaza, Israel’s military said on Friday it had begun allowing aid trucks into northern Gaza. through new crossing.
The military did not specify the location of the new crossing and it remained unclear how many trucks crossed, which aid agency they belonged to and when the crossing might be open for wider use.
Jamie McGoldrick, the top UN aid official in Jerusalem, said UN officials planned to head to the crossing on Saturday to examine it. He said the transit would be a significant improvement “if it can be scaled up and is not temporary.”
After Israeli strikes that killed seven aid workers on April 1, Mr. Biden told Mr. Netanyahu by phone that the United States could end military support to Israel unless it did more to protect civilians and ensure adequate supplies for Palestinian civilians.
Mr Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, pledged on Wednesday to “flood Gaza with aid” and said he eventually expected to see 500 aid trucks entering the enclave on a daily basis. UN figures show an average of around 110 aid trucks have entered Gaza every day since the war began on October 7.
Mr Gallant also said Israel would soon open the port of Ashdod, an Israeli city north of Gaza, to receive aid shipments, without giving a time frame.
