It should come as no surprise that tennis’ big three — Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer — have dominated the Masters 1000 tournaments with almost as much record-setting diligence as the Grand Slams. They have won a total of 103 of these top tournaments. throw in Andy Murray and the title tally reaches 117.
The Big Three won all but one Indian Wells crown from 2004 to 2017 and, with Murray, 12 of 15 Miami Open titles through 2019. Nadal has won 10 times in Rome and 11 in Monte Carlo, with Djokovic to win a total of eight times in those two tournaments. The list goes on, with these legends usually filling the other slot of a Finals most years as well.
But there is one small weakness: the Rolex Paris Masters, which starts on Monday. Djokovic has won it six times. But the now-retired Federer only won it once. Murray has won once and Nadal has only reached one final.
Last year, Holger Rune, then 19, won his first Masters 1000 in Paris, joining a list of amazing winners that since 2010 includes Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, Jack Sock and Karen Khachanov, none of whom have ever won other Masters 1000 singles titles. (Three others — Denis Shapovalov, Filip Krajinovic and Jerzy Janowicz — reached their only Masters 1000 finals here.)
Several factors make Paris different, including being the last major tournament of the year. “People are tired,” said Brad Gilbert, an ESPN analyst and former pro. “That brings a lot of unpredictability.”
Vedran Martic, Khachanov’s coach, noted that Khachanov was only 22 when he won, explaining that it’s easier for younger (and lower-ranked) players to succeed after a long, polished season. They haven’t played as deep into tournaments week in and week out as the top players, which gives them fresher legs. (Older players, he added, may also be more likely to have spouses and children eager for the short offseason to begin.)
Craig Boynton, who coaches world No. 11 Hubert Hurkacz, said the court surface in Paris prevented the ball from bouncing high, making it harder for players to set up shots and score quick points. “It’s mentally and physically taxing,” he said, noting that the fatigue factor in Paris is usually more mental than physical.
“Attitude is more important right now,” Boynton said. “In the locker room, people say, ‘Who’s crisp?’, which means ‘Who’s burnt out?’ Guys can get to Paris very cranky thinking about their holiday and want to get it over with and move on.’
Young players who feel good in the fall can gain confidence and get into a roll, like Rune did last year, Gilbert said. “If you get hot, this is a good tournament to take advantage of.”
Martic agreed to an extent, saying that in 2018 Khachanov had just won in Moscow and was in a good groove. But he added: “It’s hard to pinpoint one reason: He also plays well indoors and loves Paris and the crowds and the atmosphere there.”
The calendar matters in other ways as well. Federer withdrew from or skipped the Paris Masters four times in the 2010s, in part because it immediately precedes his hometown tournament in Basel, Switzerland. Not only did he win Basel seven times that decade (and 10 overall), reaching the final twice more, but he also devoted extra energy to supporting the event.
More importantly, Boynton said, hot on the heels of Paris are the ATP Finals for the top eight players. That’s even more remarkable than a Masters 1000. Three of those four times Federer left Paris, he played in the Finals. Nadal has played in the Finals four times after either skipping Paris or withdrawing mid-tournament due to injury.
However, Gilbert said that if a strong performance at the Paris Masters could send a player to the ATP Finals, “that’s a big motivator.” And, he added, money matters, too, pointing to a new wrinkle this year that will reduce the crunch.
The ATP will distribute $20 million to the top 30 players with the most ranking points accumulated from the Masters 1000 tournaments and the ATP Finals. “That’s a significant amount of money and my guess is that anyone close to the bonus will be up for a real fight,” he said.
But any chance to break through comes with a Novak-sized caveat: Djokovic, the most successful of the big three at this level, has reached the finals in seven of his last eight visits.
This year he will be well rested. So despite previous unpredictability and factors favoring youth, the odds remain strong that a senior will play on the final day in Paris.
