This was the day President Biden and his team had been dreading for more than three months, the day relatively low-level attacks by Iranian proxy groups against US troops in the Middle East turned deadly and intensified pressure on the president to respond in kind. way. .
With three US soldiers killed and two dozen more injured by a drone strike in Jordan, Mr Biden must decide how far he is willing to go in retaliation at the risk of a wider war that he has sought to avoid since the October 7 terror attack. attack by Hamas hit the current crisis in the Middle East.
Until now, the president has carefully calibrated his responses to the more than 150 attacks by Iranian-backed militias against US forces in the region since October 7. It essentially ignored the majority that were successfully intercepted or did little to no damage, while authorizing limited US strikes focused mostly on buildings, weapons and infrastructure after attacks that were more brazen, notably against the Houthis in Yemen that targeted shipping in Eritrea Sea.
The first deaths of US troops under fire, however, will require a different level of response, US officials said, and the president’s advisers agreed as they conferred with him by secure video conference on Sunday. What remained unclear was whether Mr. Biden would strike targets inside Iran itself, as his Republican critics have urged, saying he would be a “coward” not to, as one put it.
“The question Biden faces is whether he wants to simply react to events in the region or whether he wants to send a larger message that tries to restore a sense of deterrence that just hasn’t been there in the region for months,” Bryan said. Katoulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who worked in national security positions under President Bill Clinton.
“I’m sure they’re looking for some kind of Goldilocks response here,” he added, meaning “not too hard” that it provokes an all-out war, “not too soft” that it just prolongs the conflict “but something about it feels right.”
Mr. Biden gave no indication of his thinking, but promised to respond in some way. “The three American soldiers we lost were patriots in the highest sense,” he said in a statement. He added: “We will try to be worthy of their honor and valor. We will continue their commitment to the fight against terrorism. And have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account when and in a way we choose.”
The offensive in Jordan was not fundamentally different from what American forces had seen for more than three months, except that it was more successful. Administration and intelligence officials were trying to determine Sunday whether it represented a deliberate attempt by Iran to escalate the conflict or was intended to be the same kind of limited attack that its proxies did, but in this case they happened to kill Americans by chance.
US officials have said for months that they did not believe Iran wanted an outright war with the United States, and on Sunday they had not publicly changed that assessment. But at the same time, officials said, Iran has used its proxy powers to maintain pressure on the United States and Israel as Israel continues to pound Hamas in Gaza.
A senior US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, said on Sunday that the United States did not believe Iran intended to start a wider war by attacking Jordan. But he cautioned that analysts are still gathering and evaluating available information to determine whether Iran ordered a more aggressive attack or a militia group decided to go it alone.
While a wider conflict could serve Iran’s purposes, US officials have long believed that Tehran understood that an outright war with the United States would be deeply damaging. The attack on Jordan came at a time when some US officials had explored the idea that Iran may be on the verge of trying to rein in some of its proxy forces, a theory that may be dispelled by the attack on Jordan.
Complicating Mr. Biden’s decision is the possibility that escalating fighting with Iran could make ending the fighting in Gaza more difficult. William J. Burns, the CIA director, met in Paris on Sunday with officials from Israel, Egypt and Qatar to try to broker a deal in which Israel would halt its military campaign against Hamas for about two months in exchange for the release of more than 100 hostages were arrested on 7 October. The Biden administration is also trying to negotiate a separate deal to avoid a fuller conflict between Israel and another Iran-backed militia, Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon.
Republicans wasted little time Sunday blaming Mr. Biden for the troop deaths in Jordan, arguing that his failure to take more devastating action over the past three months had left Iran and its proxies confident they could act with impunity. .
“The whole world is watching now for signs that the president is finally ready to use American power to force Iran to change its behavior,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader. Senator Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, said flatly: “Strike Iran now. Hit them hard.”
Republicans argued that Mr. Biden was emboldening Iran by appeasing Tehran’s mullahs. They cited his efforts to negotiate a new deal with Iran curbing its nuclear weapons program and a deal securing the release of five imprisoned Americans in exchange for helping Iran access $6 billion of its own oil money that had already been promised to Tehran for humanitarian purposes. a policy enacted under former President Donald J. Trump. That money was frozen days after the October 7 attack by Iran-backed Hamas.
“He left our troops as sitting ducks, and now three are dead and dozens injured, unfortunately as I have predicted would happen for months,” said Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas. “The only response to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and throughout the Middle East. Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unfit to be commander-in-chief.”
As for Mr Trump, now the Republican nominee to challenge Biden for his old job, he claimed on social media on Sunday that “this attack would NEVER have happened if I was president, not even a chance . In fact, Iran and its proxies have indeed attacked American and allied interests during Mr. Trump’s presidency, and at one point Mr. Trump called off a retaliatory strike that he deemed excessive. He later ordered a strike that killed a top Iranian general, but when Iran responded with bombings that injured but did not kill American soldiers, Mr. Trump ordered no further action.
Mr Biden has ordered military strikes on several occasions in recent months, including on Christmas Day. Hours after a drone attack by Iran-backed militants wounded three US military service members, one critically, Mr Biden ordered airstrikes in Iraq in response. He also ordered the US military to target a militia commander blamed for the attack. US forces carried out the order on January 4 with a drone strike in Baghdad that killed the commander, Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al-Jawari.
So far, the only U.S. military deaths in the region since Oct. 7 have not been by fire but during an operation in the Arabian Sea to interdict Iranian weapons on the Houthis. Two Navy SEALs were pronounced dead last week after one fell overboard and the other dived in to try to save him. A civilian contractor in Iraq died in October after suffering a heart attack while sheltering in a horrific drone strike that didn’t actually happen.
Mr. Biden was informed of the attack on Jordan on Sunday morning in South Carolina, where he was spending the weekend campaigning ahead of the Democratic primary. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with the president, along with Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, and his deputy, Jon Finer.
Later in the day, Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris participated in a secure virtual conversation with Mr. Austin, Mr. Sullivan, Mr. Feiner and other advisers, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. and Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence.
The president addressed the issue later during a stop at the Brookland Baptist Banquet Center in West Columbia, SC
“We had a tough day last night in the Middle East,” he told the crowd. “We lost three brave souls in an attack on one of our bases.” After a minute of silence, he added, “and we will answer.”
Julian Barnes and Helen Cooper contributed to the report.
