Relations between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear to have hit a new low, with the two men hard pressed by domestic politics and the upcoming election.
Mr Biden has faced anger from global allies and his own supporters over the toll of civilian deaths in the war against Hamas and Israel’s restrictions on allowing food and medicine into Gaza amid critical shortages. On Monday, Mr Biden allowed the UN Security Council to pass a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, with the US ambassador abstaining instead of vetoing the measure, as the United States has done in the past.
In response, Mr Netanyahu, who is trying to keep his own far-right coalition government in power, pulled out of a planned high-level delegation to Washington for meetings with US officials to discuss alternatives to a planned Israeli offensive on Rafah, in the south Department. Gaza City where more than a million people have sought refuge.
Mr Netanyahu, however, allowed his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallad, to remain in Washington for talks with top Biden administration officials.
These are “the conversations that matter,” said Martin Idick, a former US ambassador to Israel. He said Mr Netanyahu’s cancellation of the other meetings, a public slap in the eyes of the US president who requested them, “is strictly executive”.
Mr. Netanyahu faces sharp criticism from his far-right coalition partners, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, for any sign that he is balking at the war against Hamas or expanding Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. His wartime government is also deeply divided over proposed legislation that could end up drafting more ultra-Orthodox Israelis, known as Haredim, into the army – a vote that was abruptly postponed on Tuesday morning.
For now, at least, Mr. Netanyahu’s political survival depends on keeping Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich in his coalition. If they leave the government, it will force an early election in Israel that Mr. Netanyahu would likely lose to his centrist rival, Benny Gantz.
New elections are exactly what Senator Chuck Schumer, D-New York and the majority leader, called for in a recent speech in which he said Mr. Netanyahu was an obstacle to peace. Mr. Biden called it a “good speech” without endorsing the election call.
Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who previously worked with Mr Netanyahu, said the prime minister was seeking to embed a central narrative: “We have to stand strong, even against the United States, and I am the man with the backbone to we do this. “
Mr. Netanyahu and his far-right allies have made increasingly harsh remarks criticizing the Biden administration. In a recent interview, Mr. Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, accused Mr. Biden of tacitly supporting Israel’s enemies such as Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, and Rashida Tlaib, a Democratic congresswoman of Palestinian descent who represents a district of Michigan.
“For now, Biden prefers the line of Rashida Tlaib and Shinwar to the line of Benjamin Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir,” Mr. Ben-Gvir said in an interview.
“I would expect the President of the United States not to toe their line, but rather toe ours,” he added.
In seeking to pressure Israel, President Biden made a “huge mistake,” Mr. Ben-Gvir said, adding that Mr. Biden “has constantly tried to impose restrictions on Israel and talks about the rights of the other side, which include, you I remind you, many terrorists who want to destroy us”.
Mr. Biden’s action on the Security Council resolution appears to be more political than substantive, and his own officials insist that American policy has not changed.
The US administration remains committed to supporting Israel and there has been no indication that it might reduce the supply of US arms to Israel. The U.N. abstention does not amount to a U.S. veto of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas in Rafah, though it underscores the desire of the U.S. and allies for Israel to first come up with a detailed plan to spare the civilians it hunts down there.
But Mr. Biden is also aware of unfavorable attitudes toward Israel in his own Democratic Party, playing down his support for battleground states as he seeks re-election.
The administration’s recent actions are both a serious and meaningful signal of the president’s displeasure with the Israeli prime minister, said Natan Sachs, director of the Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy.
The United States has imposed sanctions on violent Israeli settlers, many government officials have strongly publicly criticized Israel’s plans to press its assault on Rafah
and Mr. Gantz, against Mr. Netanyahu’s wishes, visited Washington, where he was granted meetings with senior officials, including Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, and Vice President Kamala Harris.
“There are deep differences between Biden and Netanyahu, and there is a clear shift in policy” in Washington, Mr. Sachs argued. “There are always politics at play, but these differences are not purely politically driven.”
The United States continues to work with Israel and Arab allies in an effort to broker a temporary cease-fire in Gaza in exchange for Hamas’s release of Israeli hostages. Washington hopes to turn a temporary truce into a long-term one that could allow for serious talks on how Gaza can be governed and rebuilt while protecting Israel’s security. But this is a battle yet to be fought, especially as talks on a temporary ceasefire continue.
Unlike previous US-Israeli conflicts, this one is occurring during a war in which what ultimately happens in Gaza — whether Hamas is finally defeated or emerges with operational military units — is a serious Israeli security issue, Aaron David Miller said. , a former US diplomat now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“How does Biden change the picture in Gaza when the Israeli prime minister and much of the Israeli public, including Gantz, are committed to the war goals of defeating Hamas in Gaza and restoring Israeli security?” asked Mr. Miller. “You need the Prime Minister’s consent and support.”
The danger for Mr. Biden, Mr. Miller said, is that his confrontations with Mr. Netanyahu could make it more difficult for Israel to cooperate in the president’s goals — “a de-escalation of the war, a massive increase in humanitarian aid and a less bloody operation in Rafah,” let alone a workable post-war plan for Gaza governance.
More deeply, the current disagreements are based on 20 years of increasingly strained relations over Israeli settlement activity in the occupied West Bank and Mr Netanyahu’s efforts to undermine the possibility of a two-state solution.
“There is a sense that the Israel-US relationship is breaking down,” Mr. Miller said. “Do they really share our values and interests when their policy is to annex in all but name and defy the advice of one of the most pro-Israel presidents in history?”
Mr Netanyahu has a history of using his arguments with US presidents – including Barack Obama and Bill Clinton – to bolster his domestic political position, seeking to portray himself as Israel’s best defense against external pressure to concessions on relations with the Palestinians or even a now-faded deal to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Right now, Mr. Netanyahu is trying to portray himself as standing up to Washington and the world in the name of Israeli security.
“He’s creating a situation where he can blame the U.S. for stopping him in Rafah from getting the job done with Hamas and preventing Israel from achieving its goals,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at the University Princeton. . “And if he goes, he can argue that he is the only Israeli leader who can withstand American pressure.”
Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, said Mr Netanyahu would try to blame Mr Biden for failing to triumph over Hamas.
“Since there will not be a complete elimination or elimination of Hamas, there needs to be someone to blame,” he said. “And there’s only one person to blame for that — Biden.”
At the same time, Mr. Kurtzer said, Mr. Biden is far more popular in Israel than Mr. Obama, and a serious rift with Washington would deeply undermine Israel’s security, military capability and future. So Mr. Netanyahu must be careful not to go too far.
