Voters in Finland go to the polls on Sunday in the upcoming presidential election as NATO’s newest member faces the threat of a rival Russia.
The election, which is expected to require a second round of voting, is for Finland’s first new head of state in 12 years. The country’s hugely popular president, Sauli Niinistö, has served two terms and is ineligible to run again.
Considered a stable force, Mr Niinistö is seen as most responsible for Finland’s entry into the NATO alliance, leaving whoever takes over the presidency with big shoes to fill.
From a field of nine candidates, the latest polls show two front-runners: Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto. Both are household names with strong foreign policy credentials.
The results of Sunday’s election are expected later on Sunday. If no candidate receives more than half the votes, a run-off election will be held on February 11 between the top two finishers in the first round.
While most European presidents occupy largely ceremonial roles, Finland guides foreign policy and serves as commander-in-chief. That helped catapult Mr Niinistö into global prominence after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — and cemented his approval rating, which is above 90%.
“The most important decision of Sauli Niinistö’s presidency was to join NATO,” retired political journalist Unto Hämäläinen wrote in the current issue of Finland’s Helsingin Sanomat magazine. “His tenure will be remembered decades from now.”
The incoming president will not only draw comparisons with Mr. Niinistö, but will also be expected to build on his legacy, analysts say. First and foremost will be managing Finland’s integration into NATO amid concerns about possible Russian aggression and escalating tensions in the Baltic Sea region.
“Expectations are quite high for the successor,” said Juhana Aunesluoma, a professor of political history at the University of Helsinki.
Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia, along with a combative history. The neighbors have fought many wars over the centuries, and Finns have vivid memories of the 1939 Winter War and World War II, when their country fought the Soviet Union and lost territory. With the war in Ukraine continuing and Finnish officials accusing Russia of trying to destabilize their country, analysts say security is the top issue on voters’ minds.
That’s why, they say, voters are looking for a president with the broadest foreign policy experience possible. The pool of candidates reflects this.
“Even the liberal candidates have taken a line that emphasizes military preparedness and border security,” said Johanna Vuorelma, a researcher at the University of Helsinki’s Center for European Studies.
Mr Haavisto is running for his third presidential election after losing to Mr Niinistö in the previous two elections. A founder of the centre-left Green Party, Mr Haavisto first ran for parliament in 1987 and has been a staple of Finnish politics ever since, serving as a lawmaker, as a UN official and in several government roles. Most recently, he was Finland’s foreign minister from 2019 to 2023.
Mr Stubb is also a former Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister. A prominent member of the centre-right, he left Finnish politics in 2017 and vowed not to return, but has said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed his mind.
The candidates agree on most foreign policy issues, including NATO membership, the security of the country’s border with Russia and how to handle Moscow.
That has made their differences in personality even more important to voters, analysts say. Since the election season began last summer, candidates have toured Finland to meet voters in schools, gas stations, malls and markets. Mr. Stubb, an Ironman triathlete, has often appeared at sporting events. Mr Haavisto adopted the stage name ‘DJ Pexi’ and released records at student events to appeal to younger voters.
The debates were dignified and polite, unlike parliamentary election campaigns, which are often noisy. Both Mr. Haavisto and Mr. Stubb have presented themselves as unifiers during the campaign, likely because of expectations that the election will go to a runoff.
Voter turnout in Finland, a country of 5.6 million people, tends to be around or above 70% for presidential elections. More than 1.8 million Finns, or 44 percent of the country’s voters, have already cast ballots in early voting, according to preliminary figures.
Cassandra Winograd contributed reporting from London.
