Why Russian elections matter
Russians begin voting for president today, but there is no suspense over the outcome: Vladimir Putin, 71, is certain to be declared the overwhelming winner.
The election, to be held in three days, comes as the war in Ukraine rages and the Russian opposition tries to turn grief over the death of Alexei Navalny into momentum to protest Putin. The other three candidates on the ballot are not in contention.
Since he was first appointed in 2000, Putin has consolidated power and changed the constitution to expand his rule. If Putin lasts two more terms, until 2036, he will surpass Joseph Stalin’s 29-year rule.
“These elections are a ritual,” Anton Troyanovsky, our Moscow bureau chief, told me. “It is a very important ritual for the functioning of the state and Putin’s power system. But you also shouldn’t expect it to change that much.”
Here is more from my conversation with Anton.
What is Russia trying to achieve with this election?
Antony: The goal is to give Putin a new degree of public legitimacy for his fifth term — and, crucially, to portray Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as having overwhelming public support.
The Kremlin has always used these elections—even though they are not free and fair—to say that Putin has all this power because all these people support him.
So we expect them to announce, when the polls close on Sunday, that there was more than 60 percent turnout — and that more than 70 percent of people voted for Putin. After that, there will probably be a big speech about Putin’s victory.
What is the mood among Russian voters?
I don’t think anyone is biting their nails waiting for the first exit polls on Sunday night. But where you see a lot of concern is the question of what happens after the election.
Perhaps the biggest thing Russians fear is mobilization: another military army. There was one in September 2022, which triggered this exodus of people trying to leave the country. It was the most chaotic period in the country, in general, since the war began. At this point, analysts say that doesn’t seem very likely to happen. And that’s because Russia has the initiative on the battlefield.
But there is also the issue of repression. Will there be another wave of repression? Of arrests? Of the new and repressive laws that are passed after the elections? This is also a possibility.
This election is important for Putin. He needs a demonstration of public approval of him and his war.
How did the death of Alexei Navalny change the election?
Navalny’s death has brought both much despair and much hope to anti-Putin Russians.
Desperation, because he was kind of the only figure people could imagine as the president of a more democratic Russia after Putin.
Hope, because there was this huge outpouring of grief after his death, including in Russia, where, by many estimates, tens of thousands of people came out to his funeral and to his grave in the days after his funeral.
People inside Russia knew that there were many who were opposed to the war, but you almost never saw them show it publicly. His funeral became this message: That there are still critics of Putin, critics of the war in Russia, who can make their voices heard if they see the right opportunity to do so.
How do Navalny’s supporters plan to protest this time?
Russia, right now, is more repressive than ever in the post-Soviet period. The question is: In this environment, can the Russian opposition use the election in some way to send a message of dissent?
One of the last things Navalny posted on his Instagram page before he died was a call for a protest at the ballot box on the last day of voting, Sunday, March 17, at noon.
The idea is: There is no law against voting. In fact, the government wants to vote. And there is no law against showing up at any time. So why doesn’t everyone who is anti-Putin and anti-war show up at noon on March 17th?
Navalny’s team hopes that we will see these huge lines and that will show the government how many people are against the war. But turnout will be difficult to measure, given that Russia has tens of thousands of polling stations.
A top senator has called for new Israeli leadership
Chuck Schumer – the leader of the Senate and the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in the US – has denounced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and called for an election to replace him, five months after the Gaza war.
Schumer’s speech to the Senate was the sharpest criticism yet from a top US elected official, saying the Israeli leader had become an obstacle to peace and “lost his way by allowing his political survival to trump Israel’s interests”.
In the area: President Mahmoud Abbas has chosen an insider to become the next prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, rejecting international calls to mandate an independent leader.
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