A special election in New York’s Third Congressional District on Tuesday will determine who will replace George Santos, the former Republican congressman and novelist, for the rest of the year. But the political ramifications may be felt far beyond the borders of Nassau County and Queens, with lessons for both places in November.
The contest pits Mazi Pilip, a little-known Nassau County legislator running as a Republican, against Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who previously held the seat for three terms before leaving to run for governor. The race is expected to be tight – with the last-minute wildcard of a major snowstorm on Election Day.
My colleague Nick Fandos, who has been following the race closely, reported today that the powerful Nassau County Republican machine is closely managing Pilip’s campaign. Her election records do not show a single person on her campaign payroll, a highly unusual arrangement.
Here’s our guide to the issues dominating the race and how they could play out in the 2024 general election.
Immigration
Republicans have embraced immigration as their central issue, hoping to tap into suburban voters’ concern about the wave of immigrants arriving in cities like New York. Pilip, who was born in Ethiopia before immigrating to Israel and then the United States, has campaigned in front of immigrant shelters in Queens, accusing her opponent and President Biden of bringing “the border crisis to our front door.” Republicans have spent millions blanketing the airwaves with ads portraying Suozzi as an “open-borders radical.”
Suozzi, for his part, has refused to concede on the issue, making a tougher stance on immigration a centerpiece of his campaign. He called on Biden to lock down the border and said a group of immigrants accused of assaulting police officers should be deported. He also criticized Philip for his opposition to a bipartisan Senate border bill.
If Suozzi’s strategy succeeds, his approach could become a new immigration guide for other Democrats running in swing suburban districts.
Abortion
Since Roe v. Wade, Democrats have leaned toward abortion rights as a dynamic force for their coalition. The $13 million they spent on advertising in the race — twice as much as Republicans — has branded Philip a staunch opponent of abortion rights.
Philip, an Orthodox Jew and mother of seven, describes herself as “pro-life.” In the first and only debate of the race last Thursday, he said he would not support a national abortion ban. But she refused to say what abortion restrictions she would support and attacked Suotsi for pressing her for specifics, accusing him of telling a woman what she believes.
“I was pregnant. I suffered,” he said. “It’s a personal choice. Every woman should have this option. I’m not going to tell her what to do.”
If Pilip wins, her approach could become popular with Republican candidates, who have struggled to find a voter-friendly stance on abortion since the fall of Roe.
The road to November
Democratic and Republican leaders will be watching tomorrow’s special election to see how their messaging strategies will play out this fall in a pivotal battleground.
Control of the House in 2025 may hinge on a handful of suburban districts around New York City, such as the Third District, which stretches from the outskirts of Queens to the suburbs of Nassau County. Republicans flipped four of those districts in 2022, which helped them win a narrow majority in the House.
At the time, Hakeem Jeffries, the Brooklyn congressman who would soon become the top Democrat in the House, predicted that those gains would be short-lived. He described the positions as “Republicans rent, don’t own.”
Special elections, which are typically characterized by low voter turnout and subject to the dynamics of idiosyncratic House districts, are not perfect predictors of general elections. Think of them as previews for a Broadway show: They might signal how the play might go, but nothing really counts until the curtain goes up on opening night.
Or, with Jeffries’ metaphor in mind, this special election might give Democrats their first hint of how long this Republican lease will last.
RFK Jr. apologizes for a Super Bowl ad
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized last night after a super PAC that supported his presidential campaign conducted nostalgic Super Bowl ad which was very similar to a point made famous by his uncle John F. Kennedy.
The ad featured the same jingle and cheerful cartoons interspersed with candid photos of Kennedy, who won the 1960 race, with Robert Kennedy Jr.’s face superimposed on it.
Some members of the Kennedy family were quick to criticize the ad. Many of them have denounced him for promoting baseless theories about vaccines and other issues.
Bobby Shriver, nephew of John F. Kennedy, told X: “My cousin’s Super Bowl commercial used the faces of our uncle — and my mother. She would be horrified by his deadly views on health. Respect for science, vaccines and health care equity was in her DNA.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. himself, who invoked his storied political family and its legacy throughout his candidacy, soon responded.
“I’m so sorry if the Super Bowl ad caused pain to anyone in my family,” she wrote to X on Sunday night. “The ad was created and served by the American Values Super PAC without any involvement or endorsement by my campaign. FEC rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with me or my staff. I love you all. God bless you.”
Separately, the Democratic National Committee filed a complaint Friday accusing Kennedy and the super PAC of illegal coordination.
Kennedy is running for president as an independent. His candidacy has alarmed many Democrats who fear that Kennedy — an environmental lawyer who has become a prominent purveyor of conspiracy theories — could siphon votes from President Biden.
The super PAC has heightened those suspicions. A significant portion of her funding, about $15 million, came from Timothy Mellon, a Republican who has also given $10 million to a super PAC supporting former President Donald J. Trump.
Robert Shrum, a longtime Democratic political consultant, wrote: “This RFK Jr. ad. Super Bowl is a clear plagiarism of the JFK ad from 1960. What a rip-off — and to quote Lloyd Bentsen with a slight modification: “Bobby, you’re not John F. Kennedy.” Instead, you’re an ally of Trump.” — Rebecca Davis O’Brien
Read the full story here.
