Israeli forces were on high alert on Friday in anticipation of retaliation from Iran or its proxies, which analysts and officials warned could provoke an Israeli response and potentially trigger a wider conflict in the region.
Iran is expected to launch an attack as soon as this weekend in retaliation for an April 1 airstrike in which warplanes struck an Iranian embassy building in Damascus, killing three generals and other commanders, US and Iranian officials said on Friday.
Military analysts said neither Israel nor Iran appeared interested in provoking an all-out war that could lead to the United States, but that a miscalculation about each side’s red lines could lead to an escalation of hostilities.
An Iranian response was inevitable given the high profile of one of the generals killed in Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top commander of Iran’s Quds Force, analysts said.
“For every wise player, there comes a time when the cost-benefit calculation changes and all strategies are readjusted,” said Mahdi Mohammadi, the chief adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament. “For Iran, this moment was the attack on Damascus.”
Israel expects Iran to strike in a way that allows it to save face, but is measured enough not to provoke an even fiercer counterattack, analysts say. The Iranians “don’t want an all-out war,” said Amos Gilead, a retired Israeli general. “So they can attack targets that would allow them to claim a great victory.”
Iran and Israel maintain no direct, official channel of communication, making the chances for each side to misunderstand the other’s intentions much greater, said Danny Sitrinovich, a former Israeli military intelligence officer.
U.S. analysts and intelligence officials believe Iran will strike multiple targets inside Israel within the next few days, said three U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
Where these strikes are aimed, where they will be launched from, who might carry them out and how much damage they are expected to cause remain secrets to all but the highest levels of the Iranian government and military.
But Iran’s response to those questions will determine the size and scope of Israel’s response, said Mr. Citrinowicz, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
The country’s leaders likely hope to use the strike to restore some deterrence after General Zahedi was killed in Syria, he said. (Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility for that attack, but several Israeli officials confirmed the country’s involvement to The New York Times.)
Such an Iranian response, Mr. Citrinowicz said, could mean an attack from Iran’s soil rather than through its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
Israel has warned that an attack launched from inside Iran on targets inside Israel would be seen as an escalation requiring a response.
Daniel Haggari, the Israeli military spokesman, said Thursday that such an attack would be “clear proof of Iran’s intentions to escalate the Middle East and stop hiding behind proxies.”
Last week, in anticipation of an Iranian strike, the Israeli military announced that additional reserve units had been called up to bolster Israel’s air defense system and that combat troops awaiting leave had been ordered to remain on deployment.
If Iran launches an attack from its own territory, Mr. Citrinowicz said, Israel’s air defenses would detect drones or cruise missiles long before they reach their targets, giving Israeli forces a chance to destroy them.
A more frightening scenario, he said, would be surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, which would arrive in minutes. Israel has developed some defenses – such as the Arrow system – to intercept longer-range missiles.
“If we can intercept most of the inbound, that would be great – it would alleviate our need to respond aggressively,” Mr Citrinowicz said.
Farnaz Fashihi contributed to the report.
