When President Biden welcomes Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Washington this week for a visit highlighted by the pomp of a state dinner, there will be an inescapable subtext throughout the ceremony: Both leaders are fighting to keep jobs their.
With Mr Biden facing a tight re-election showdown with his predecessor and Mr Kishida’s approval ratings falling to record lows amid a political scandal, the leaders are expected to discuss ways to cement their countries’ alliance so that to remain strong even if it is no longer there to nourish it.
The goal is to “create a situation where no one can loosen their ties,” said Narushige Michishita, a professor of international relations at the National Graduate Institute of Politics in Tokyo.
The risk of drastic change appears to be much greater on the American side. Japanese officials, lawmakers and the media refer to “moshi Tora” — “if Trump” — or even “hobo Tora,” which roughly translates to “probable Trump,” using an abbreviation of the former president and current Republican candidate’s name .
Given Donald J. Trump’s unpredictable behavior and transactional view of international alliances, Japanese officials are preparing for possible changes in American foreign policy.
For Japan’s part, even if Mr. Kishida does not survive a leadership election this fall in his own party, he will still control the government at least until the next general election and likely beyond — meaning that any major changes in Tokyo’s political commitments are unlikely.
At the summit this week, during which Mr Kishida will also address a joint session of Congress, the leaders are expected to talk about closer military cooperation between US forces based in Japan and their Japanese counterparts. partnerships in artificial intelligence, space technology, and semiconductors; and Japan’s ability to build and export more weapons to the United States.
Military cooperation in particular “reeks of future proof,” said Tobias Harris, founder and director of Japan Foresight, a political risk consultancy in Washington.
During Trump’s presidency, relations between the two countries endured some turmoil as Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister at the time, went to great lengths to curry favor with Mr. Trump.
Mr. Biden has worked with two Japanese leaders — Yoshihide Suga, Mr. Abe’s successor, who was assassinated in 2022, and Mr. Kishida — to restore and expand the alliance while developing stronger ties with other partners. in Asia to face China. rising power.
Last summer, Mr. Biden hosted Mr. Kishida and his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk Yeol, in the president’s first meeting with foreign leaders at Camp David. This week, Mr. Biden and Mr. Kishida will meet with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines in the first trilateral meeting between the leaders of these three countries.
In an interview with foreign media on Friday, Mr Kishida said high-level talks between multiple partners were vital given the “very complex and challenging security environment”.
“Japan believes it is important for peace and stability in the region to cooperate with the Philippines and other like-minded countries while maintaining the Japan-US alliance as a cornerstone,” Mr. Kishida said.
China, which has militarized islands in the South China Sea, repeatedly clashed with Philippine vessels and pursued a strategy of squeezing Taiwan, has stopped short of a major conflict that could lead to the United States and, by extension, Japan.
Mr. Biden hopes to establish a binding network of Pacific nations to deter Chinese aggression at a time when the United States is already embroiled in wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
“The US is obviously thin on resources and diplomatic capital,” said Mireya Solís, author of Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific. “There is a desire to make sure the alliance is fit for purpose” if there is a conflict in Asia.
For its part, Japan has made bold changes in defense policy after years of nominal pacifism, doubling the amount earmarked for military spending and acquiring Tomahawk missiles from the United States.
Late last year, Japan reversed post-war policies that restricted arms exports and agreed to sell American Patriot missiles made in Japan to the US government.
This week in Washington, Mr Biden and Mr Kishida are expected to discuss setting up a joint defense council to explore further exports, including additional Japanese-made Patriots, cruise missiles and trainer aircraft used by fighter pilots, according to a senior stem. A US government official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the meeting. Japan could also work with the United States to help repair US Navy ships so they don’t have to leave the region for maintenance.
Beyond defense, an economic component of Mr. Kishida’s visit — an expected trip to a Toyota electric vehicle battery factory in North Carolina — may also be intended to provide a public reminder of Japan’s investment in the United States.
Such reminders may be of particular interest to Mr. Trump: In 2019, during a Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, Mr. Abe gave the president a one-page, colorful map showing U.S. investment by companies based in in Japan, the largest foreign direct investor in the United States.
Without saying so, Japan may also be trying to pressure the Biden administration to allow Nippon Steel, a Japanese company, to acquire US Steel, the struggling Pittsburgh-based manufacturer.
“The contrast between an administration raising national security concerns about a Japanese steel company buying an American steel company at the same time you’re trying to increase military-industrial cooperation — the messages are a bit muddled,” Mr. Harris said, the Japanese analyst .
If the deal doesn’t go through, it could complicate business ties between the two countries, said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade representative to Asia.
“The question is whether going forward this leaves a chilling effect in the eyes of other Japanese investors or, frankly, investors from other allies and partners,” Ms Cutler said.
Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, said the alliance between the two countries “is much deeper and is much stronger and has much more strategic alignment than a single trade agreement.”
With Congress deadlocked over extending US military aid to Ukraine, aides to Mr Kishida declined to say whether the prime minister would invoke Japan’s support for Ukraine in a speech to US lawmakers this week.
However, in the interview on Friday, Mr Kishida said he would like to “express and recognize with President Biden the importance of continued efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine through unity between the G7 and other like-minded countries ».
As for the ceremonial parts of the visit, there is no word yet on whether the prime minister will follow his South Korean counterpart in singing an iconic American song at the state dinner on Wednesday.
Kiuko Notoya contributed reporting.
