As the war in Gaza rages on, with civilian deaths soaring, few Arab leaders have publicly expressed their visions for the future of the battered enclave, fearing they will be accused of supporting Israel’s actions.
But an influential Palestinian exile, in an interview with The New York Times, gave public insight into the kinds of postwar plans Arab leaders are discussing in private.
Mohammed Dalan, an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, outlined a plan under which Israel and Hamas would hand over power to a new and independent Palestinian leader who could rebuild Gaza under the protection of an Arab peacekeeping force.
While such plans face steep challenges, the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are open to supporting processes that are part of efforts leading to a Palestinian state, said Mr. Dahlan, who also has close ties to the president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Officials from six Arab governments gathered in Saudi Arabia last week to discuss the future of Gaza and the need for a ceasefire, according to two Palestinian officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Under the plan outlined by Mr Dahlan and echoed privately by Arab nations, a new Palestinian leader would take charge of Gaza and parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank currently administered by the Palestinian Authority . That leader will replace Mahmoud Abbas, the authority’s 88-year-old chairman, who will retain a ceremonial role, Mr. Dahlan said.
“No Abbas, no Hamas,” said Mr. Dahlan, who has long been at loggerheads with Mr. Abbas. “New officials of the Palestinian Authority”.
For years, Mr. Dahlan was isolated from the Palestinian political scene and criticized by many power figures.
He was Mr Abbas’s national security adviser when Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, and had a reputation for brutality that made him unpopular with many Palestinians. His relationship with Mr Abbas soured amid perceptions he was trying to succeed him and he was convicted in absentia of corruption charges he denies in 2016.
In the United Arab Emirates, he built close relationships with members of the royal family, initially reconnecting with Sheikh Haza bin Zayed, his former counterpart in the Emirati security establishment. He also linked up with Sheikh Haza’s brother, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, who became president in 2022. Mr Dahlan has since become one of his key advisers.
“He is a very important person of the Emirati president for Palestinian politics,” Moeen Rabbani, a Palestinian political expert, said of Mr. Dahlan.
Mr. Dahlan still has critics who say he used heavy-handed tactics in Gaza and had a penchant for self-promotion. But he is a major force in Palestinian politics, analysts say, partly as a result of his help directing Emirati funds to Gaza.
He oversees a political party that was seen as a potential kingpin during a 2021 election campaign in the West Bank and Gaza before the vote was cancelled. He regularly coordinates with other Palestinian opposition leaders in a loose network seeking to topple Mr. Abbas.
“He is a prominent Palestinian politician with a wide support network in Gaza,” said Jehad Harb, a Ramallah-based analyst in the West Bank. “The millions that Emirates funneled into Gaza through him only strengthened his position there.”
Mr. Dahlan has also built close ties with top Hamas officials in recent years, according to Ghaith al-Omari, an analyst of Palestinian affairs at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
In the interview, Mr Dahlan, 62, said a new Palestinian administration could invite friendly Arab states to send troops to help maintain order in Gaza. And countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia would be ready to help – and finance reconstruction – if Israel agreed to the creation of a Palestinian state, he said.
“If there is a two-state solution, the answer is a big yes,” Mr Dahlan said.
“The main Arab countries are actually very willing to settle this conflict,” he added. “Not the war, the whole conflict.”
Saudi Arabia and Egypt declined to comment on the plan described by Mr. Dahlan. A UAE statement did not directly address the plan, but said: “Our contribution to any reconstruction effort in Gaza will depend” on commitments to achieve a “two-state solution.”
Briefed on the plan Mr Dahlan described, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist, said it was “consistent with what we know about what we call ‘the next day'” war, referring to what he had heard of discussions between Arab leaders.
The plan faces significant obstacles. The Palestinian Authority and Mr. Abbas have resisted changes to the organization, which remains mired in corruption and widely viewed as authoritarian.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to maintain “total security” control over Gaza and the West Bank, rejecting a fully sovereign Palestinian state. Mr Netanyahu’s political base is also pushing for the resettlement of Israeli civilians in Gaza once the war ends.
Any proposal would also require a buyout from Hamas, which still controls part of southern Gaza.
The situation in Gaza is dire: an estimated 28,000 people have been killed. most buildings have been damaged or destroyed, according to the United Nations. and most of the 2.2 million residents have fled their homes.
Mr Dahlan said some of his family had been killed in Gaza and that many of their homes had been destroyed.
Mr Dahlan grew up in southern Gaza, in the same town as Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who oversaw the October 7 attack on Israel.
Mr Dahlan joined Fatah, Hamas’s secular rival, and became the Palestinian Authority’s security chief in Gaza. He was traveling out of Gaza when Hamas took control of it in 2007, stripping him of power and prompting him to fly to the West Bank. Four years later, Mr. Dahlan fell out with Mr. Abbas. After he was expelled from Fatah and Palestinian security forces raided his home in Ramallah, he fled.
In exile, Mr Dahlan has amassed power, wealth and influence through his close friendship with the Emirati president, whom he represents as an envoy throughout the region.
Signs of his comfortable position in Abu Dhabi were evident during the interview, which took place within the grounds of a palace owned by the Emirati royal family. Outside his office was a chrome Bentley. in his living room there were at least 12 large sofas.
Although once seen by some Israelis as a potential partner, Mr. Dahlan showed little sympathy for Israeli concerns in the interview. He rejected the idea that he is trying to convince Israelis of the need for a Palestinian state. “It’s not my job to convince the Israelis,” he said. “Let them go to hell.”
Mr Dahlan said he was working to persuade Hamas to cede power to a new Palestinian leadership, suggesting the group could be persuaded to relinquish control as part of a wider package that created a Palestinian state.
For a decade, Mr. Dahlan has been widely seen as a possible successor to Mr. Abbas. But in the interview, he said he’s not interested in taking on an official leadership role.
Mr Dahlan is unlikely to rush out of the UAE to lead a complex process of rebuilding a vicious political system, Mr Omari said. But it has spent significant time and money maintaining networks in the West Bank and Gaza, suggesting it has long-term political ambitions, Mr. Omari said.
“He is not someone who has checked out of Palestine,” he said.
Like other senior Palestinian politicians, Mr. Dahlan has refrained from condemning the Hamas-led offensive, which Israeli officials say has killed about 1,200 people.
But he criticized Hamas leaders for claiming that Gazans were ready to pay the price for the group’s actions.
“Relying on people who are suffering is not leadership,” he said. “The Palestinian people want to live.”
