What the terrorist attack means for Russia
Investigators yesterday charged four men who they said killed at least 137 people at a concert hall near Moscow on Friday.
The four suspects, who face a possible life sentence for Russia’s worst terrorist attack in 20 years, have been identified as Dalerzon Mirzoyev, Saidakrami Rahabalizonda, Shamsdin Fariduni and Mukhamadsobir Faizov.
Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, and US officials said it appeared to be the work of ISIS-K, the terror group’s branch that operates in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. A growing body of evidence supports this claim.
However, Russian commentators and state media largely ignore ISIS and accuse Ukraine of being linked to the attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also hinted at the idea, which Kiev has flatly denied.
I spoke with my colleague Valerie Hopkins, who covers Russia, about the response to the attack and what it means for Russia’s security.
Q: How has Putin responded to the attack so far and how has he tried to link it to Ukraine?
Valerie: It took 19 hours for him to address the nation and when he did, he said the suspects had been arrested and were on their way to Ukraine, where he said the Ukrainians had prepared a window to enter the country. He did not mention ISIS.
He said in no uncertain terms that the terrorists would be punished and that no one involved in the attack would be spared. He tried to answer in a very pointed way, but without specifying what the motive was or saying whether investigators had uncovered other people.
Q: How do people in Russia react?
Valerie: There is still a lot of shock, there are still a lot of questions, and there is still so much that is not very clear to most people. You can see these images in Moscow with piles of flowers and memorials that look nothing like how people reacted when Aleksei Navalny or Yevgeny Prigozhin were killed.
Q: The Russians seem to think Ukraine was responsible?
Valerie: In the interviews we’ve done, no one has talked about this theory. I’m sure there are people who believe that. And there are a number of pro-government analysts who are slowly trying to develop the narrative that these guys were recruited to Tajikistan by the Ukrainian embassy.
It is too early for polls, which is already very difficult in Russia. But in the absence of evidence, I’d say the reaction depends largely on your political views. I think there are a lot of people who are very afraid of what this attack portends for Russia, which is already a very security-oriented country. Whenever you go to a mall or most public places, you are supposed to go through metal detectors.
From what people in Moscow have told me, all shopping malls and other public places have been relatively empty since the shootings.
And I think another group of people blamed the security services for a) focusing so much on Ukraine and b) frankly, on the political opposition and minority groups, many of which have the same legal status as ISIS-K. Alexei Navalny was considered a terrorist and extremist under Russian law. And anyone who belongs to the LGBT community is considered an extremist.
So those more in opposition took pains to point out that perhaps if the security services had not focused on raiding gay clubs and cracking down on anti-war groups and human rights activists, they would have done a better job of preventing this attack.
Q: Do you have any sense of how the attack affected the public’s view of Putin and the government?
Valerie: I think many of Putin’s supporters want him to have a strong hand. And Russia, I believe since the war began, spends about 30 percent of its budget on the military, security services, and correctional institutions — it’s a huge percentage of state spending. And it’s a gigantic device, and I think there are people who have questions about how it failed. (My colleague Anton Troianovski has written about what the attack means for Russia’s security apparatus.)
While independent pollsters say most Russians still believe they live in a democracy, many of them accept they may not have the same rights as people in the West, but that’s in exchange for a relative sense of security.
Putin came to power on New Year’s Eve 1999 and promised to fix everything, stop inflation and get the economy back on track. The economic chaos of the 1990s eventually subsided, and many Russians still credit him for it. The war and general mobilization in September 2022 was a huge break in this social contract of “Stay out of politics, and we’ll provide you with a secure and reasonably functional state.” This attack is a reminder that even accepting this compromise doesn’t necessarily keep you safe.
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