Yesterday, I focused heavily on setting the table for the updated NBA Pre-Postseason player tiers before revealing Tier 3 (players ranked between 24th and 42nd) and Tier 4 (Nos. 43-80).
Today, I’ll dig a little deeper into some of the more interesting and/or challenging placements, as well as note some general trends.
For starters, a consistent piece of feedback—and one I’ve gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4—is the always-difficult assessment of which player is more valuable between a top player and a good-but-not-great primary or secondary creative. A senior analytics executive in the league went so far as to argue that they would essentially prefer the entirety of Tier 4A, which is made up largely of top role players or link players, over Tier 3B, which is made up of borderline All-Star qualifiers .
I don’t think there’s a reliable way to resolve this debate, and on some level, the decision between, say, Mikal Bridges on the one hand and Jaylen Brown on the other is more a function of the rest of the roster than the individual players. . In this particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that both the Celtics and Nets would be better off if the two were traded!
NBA Player Categories: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘23: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ’24: T3&4
In a way, this is really an extension of the long-standing question of how to rate the level of sub-elite, but still very good, ball players. At least to my way of thinking, there is nothing more valuable in the league than elite shot creation and nothing more overrated than mediocre shot creation, but finding the importance and desire of the players in between is simply difficult.
It’s also, in some form, the reason for doing this exercise in the first place, as recognizing that there’s a pretty big gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and that the difference between Luka Doncic and Donovan Mitchell is substantial is a vital part of the roster. assessment. Avoid cheapening the term “franchise player,” in other words.
Another set of teammates that illustrate this dichotomy are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I didn’t think Banchero was particularly All-Star worthy this year. Through games through April 10, there are only eight players who have scored at least 100 fewer points than they would have had a similar number of scoring attempts at a league-average performance per Basketball Reference, with Banchero tied for seventh on that list. However, on some level, this is a result of Orlando’s lack of other creators. In my Simple Shot Quality model, the 50.2% expected eFG% is the 24th lowest among the 162 players with at least 500 tracked shots attempted this season.
But to go back, the players with the 21st, 22nd and 23rd hardest-shooting diets are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Tatum, who have significantly exceeded expectations at 209 (SGA, third out of 162), 73 ( Edwards, 45th) and 151 (Tatum, 13th) points scored, while Banchero has shot essentially at the level of his shooting quality (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he get credit for helping keep Orlando’s offense at all, at least being able to absorb possessions? How would he play with more creative guard play around him? I’m not entirely sure, which is why Banchero is a difficult player to rate.
Meanwhile, Wagner doesn’t have the same self-creation ability as Bansereau, but is superior in most other areas – more efficient scoring, better and more versatile defending, off the ball – in a way that would make him very good and -Play add-on any team that had already fulfilled their primary creative roles.
Moving on, there are some notable players that could have been much higher had I done a mid-season tier update. Tyrese Haliburton is one. He’s been great this year, a deserving All-Star and the driving force behind Indiana’s potent offense. But the second half of the year hasn’t lived up to the first, either as a result of nagging injuries slowing him down or defenses starting to figure him out, or likely a combination of both. That, combined with my uncertainty about how well his style translates to the playoffs, pushed him to Tier 3 when for much of the season I had him penciled in at the lower end of Tier 2.
Damian Lillard is another player who leveled off during the season. Early in the year, it was easy to give him a bit of a pass based on both the adjustment to a new team and role and the coaching turmoil that has engulfed the Bucks for the first stretch of the season. But while he has shown some of his old dominance in games and starts, such as the 29 points (on 19 shots) and nine assists he collected Wednesday to lead the Bucks past the Magic despite the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, these performance was the exception rather than the rule. Over his final four seasons in Portland, Lillard combined for 62.1 True Shooting to 31.4 Usage. In Milwaukee, his efficiency has dropped to 59.3 TS in 28.4 usage, his least efficient full season relative to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a huge question mark defensively, it’s a worrying drop at 33.
Of course, he could shoot the ball in the playoffs and help the Bucks to the Eastern Conference Finals or even the NBA Finals and prove he still belongs in the Top 20 conversation.
Speaking of the playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there were a few players who couldn’t easily improve their tier until the playoffs, with Tatum, Dončić, and Joel Embiid as prime examples. All three have excellent opportunities to enter the postseason this year, with Doncic in particular looking primed to make a run. The midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ newfound ability to always be able to match Dončić’s creative flair with a strong pick-and-roll dive-and-dunk partner surrounded by shooting seems to have unlocked something special.
Meanwhile, there are a few players I’ve already more or less assumed playoff greatness based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray didn’t have banner regular seasons, but both have records of playoff dominance.
Jumping back a bit, I’m not sure what to make of Ja Morant so I’m basically treating it as a gap year while acknowledging that he’s secured some extra time control.
Finally, let’s talk about the big French guy in the room. Victor Wembanyama in Tier 2B, among the Top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he’s been NBA-level all season, but he’s been good enough as a rookie and shown development over the course of the year to suggest to me that he’ll enter next season with a strong shot at all-league honors.
That growth is especially evident if you compare before and after either his move to start at center instead of power forward in early December or the introduction of Tre Jones as a starter in early January to pair Wembanyama with a capable point guard.
In the first, he was one of the top five rim protectors in the league since then, with a profile similar to that of Brook Lopez during that time. Meanwhile, before Jones joined the regulars, Wembanyama only managed a 53.3 True Shooting Percentage (on 29.9 Usage), but since then, that percentage has risen to 58.5 TS% on 33.7 Usage, while increased his assist percentage by nearly 50 percent. And all of his 3-point shooting is still very much a work in progress.
Of course, the numbers don’t even tell the full story of Wembey, as evidenced by the near-nightly parade of “Wait, he did what?” best moments. While he won’t get a chance to prove himself in this year’s playoffs, it seems almost inevitable that if he can avoid injury, he’ll be knocking on the Tier 1 door once he’s done everything he’s been told. it is, and much more.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athlete; (Photos: Michael Gonzales, Garrett Ellwood, Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty)
