The crew at an artillery position in eastern Ukraine had 33 rounds in their ammunition magazine, stacked neatly like firewood against a wall.
Then came the order to fire. Twenty minutes later, smoke billowed around a howitzer and 17 shells disappeared—more than half the crew’s ammunition. The rapidly depleting stockpile was emblematic of Ukraine’s dwindling supply of artillery ammunition, even as Russian attacks continue.
“Artillery decides battles,” said Captain Vladyslav Slominsky, the artillery commander on this part of the front. “Whoever has more wins.”
For now, that’s Russia, as Ukrainian soldiers seek some of the last ammunition for some types of weapons after months of delays in the US Congress for a new round of military and financial aid. There are signs that the impasse may be breaking, as Speaker Mike Johnson this week laid out possible conditions for passage of the measure, which is expected to pass despite opposition from many conservative Republicans.
The shortfall comes as Ukraine is on the defensive along its 600-mile front line in eastern Ukraine and building additional fortifications such as bunkers, trenches and minefields. The artillery ammunition is needed to hold the line until defensive fortifications are completed and an expected Russian offensive begins this summer.
Russia had an artillery advantage throughout the war, but that advantage waned briefly last year. Estimates vary, but analysts and Ukrainian officials say Russia is now firing at least five times as many artillery shells as Ukraine.
“You can’t expect people to fight without ammunition,” Johan Norberg, a military analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, said in a telephone interview. “That’s a key point.”
Ukraine’s largest single supplier of munitions was the United States until the latest round of military aid stalled in Congress. Representative Mike Turner of Ohio, a Republican who is chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, told CBS News over the weekend that US military and intelligence officials had made it clear that Ukraine could not take much longer.
“We are at a critical juncture on the ground that is starting to affect not only the morale of the Ukrainians fighting but their ability to fight,” Mr Turner said.
On the front lines in Ukraine, they call it “shell famine,” a desperate shortage of ammunition that is distorting tactics and the types of weapons used. It’s not just the overall lack of ammo that’s so detrimental but also the imbalance in the types available.
A year ago, for example, Ukraine lobbied the United States to supply cluster munitions, often criticized for dispersing unexploded bombs that pose a threat to civilians. As a result, it now has a relative abundance of cluster munitions that are effective against infantry, but few of the high-explosive projectiles that could be more effective against advancing Russian tanks and other armored vehicles, military analysts and Ukrainian soldiers said.
A shortage of mortar shells that cost about $1,000 each has forced commanders to turn to heavier artillery shells that are in short supply and, at $3,000, much more expensive. And Ukraine has more NATO-caliber missiles than Soviet-caliber ones, even though it still has more Soviet-legacy weapons than recent Western models. And heavy reliance on Western howitzers drove many back to the repair shop when they were badly needed at the front.
The Russian military, for its part, has developed relatively effective tactics for storming trench lines in the absence of heavy artillery from the Ukrainian side, promoting its own heavy artillery barrages, human wave assaults with convicts, and aviation bombs that can be released while planes they are out of range of Ukrainian air defenses.
Ahead of the anticipated attack, Russia has replenished its ranks with recruits and conscripts without resorting to a potentially destabilizing mass mobilization, as it did in the fall of 2022. And President Vladimir V. Putin held a stage-managed presidential vote as popular support for the war, while suggesting without evidence that Ukraine played a role in a terrorist attack on a concert hall in Moscow, causing outrage among Ukrainians.
Last week, Russian forces had advanced toward a key line of trenches and bunkers west of the town of Avdiivka, which Russia captured in February. Over the weekend, Russian forces launched one of their biggest ground assaults in months on Ukrainian positions in the area, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based group that closely monitors developments in the conflict.
Forced to make do with what they have, Ukrainian gun crews must be quick and judicious in their shell expenditure. When the Russian soldiers break cover to attack, the Ukrainian gunners have little time to waste.
One recent morning, around 5 a.m., a call came in to a crew firing cluster munitions. The soldiers threw away their armor and helmets, ran to their howitzers and started firing. Two soldiers ran between the ammunition magazine and the gun, pulling the shells.
“New target,” a commander’s voice boomed over the radio, coordinates rattling. The soldiers turned wheels on the howitzer to adjust the aim and then fired more.
“Fire now!” the radio blared at one point.
Russian forces attacked a front-line position about five miles away. If another such attack had occurred, the gun’s crew would be out of ammunition until new supplies arrived.
The crew commander, Sgt. Oleksandr Andriyenko, said he was receiving 20 shells a day at his position, compared with 80 last summer, when Ukraine launched a counteroffensive that failed even with relatively abundant supplies.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CBS News last month that his country was not prepared for a summer offensive by Russia and that the Russian military may reopen a northern front in the war with a ground attack on Sumy region, which shares a border with Russia.
If the aid package clears Congress, however, the Ukrainian military can count on a new infusion of shells. Otherwise, its best hope for artillery ammunition is an initiative by the Czech government to buy shells on the global arms market and donate them to Ukraine. European countries have little to offer from their depleted reserves.
About 20 countries are contributing to a common procurement fund, Czech President Petr Pavel said, adding that his government had found half a million 155mm shells and 300,000 122mm shells available for purchase outside Europe.
The first deliveries are expected in June, but the program has already paid off, Czech officials say: Knowing that more ammunition is on the way, Ukrainian artillery forces can dip deeper into reserves, they said, adding that the same would be true if help from USA continued.
At home, Ukraine is ramping up its efforts to produce artillery shells under programs shrouded in secrecy, lest the sites become targets of Russian missiles. However, production has not yet begun, Ukrainian officials say.
Maria Varenikova contributed reporting from Kurakhove, Ukraine.
