Pakistan’s newly elected parliament approved Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister On Sunday, inaugurating his second term in the role and capping weeks of turmoil – as well as setting in motion a government facing economic and political challenges that are likely to leave the country in turmoil for years to come.
His selection also puts at a crossroads the role of Pakistan’s powerful military, which has long been seen as an invisible hand guiding the country’s politics and has in the past engineered its election results. Analysts say public confidence in Mr Sharif’s government is low.
“The government is considered pre-doomed,” said Talat Hussain, a political analyst based in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.
Mr Sharif secured 201 votes in the national assembly, while his nearest rival, Omar Ayub, a supporter of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, got 92.
Before voting began, Mr. Sharif arrived in the main hall accompanied by his elder brother, Nawaz, who was also elected as a member of the national assembly. The two brothers sat together in the front row, a reminder that the elder Sharif, himself a three-time prime minister, remains influential and likely to wield power behind the scenes.
Proceedings began with a loud protest in support of Mr. Khan. Several supporters of Khan sat in front of the speaker’s court to shout slogans. Many others waved pictures of Mr Khan as they too shouted slogans in favor of the cricket star-turned-politician.
Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party, which he and his family lead and is currently the preferred party of the military, did not win the most seats in Pakistan’s national elections a month ago. That honor went to candidates aligned with a party led by Mr. Khan, which the military had tried to sideline.
Despite this upset – a sharp rebuke to the military – the PMLN was able to cobble together a coalition with other major parties to lead the government.
But Mr. Sharif’s government will face lingering doubts about its legitimacy after mounting accusations that the military tampered with vote counts in dozens of races to tilt them in favor of his party and away from Mr. Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.
Najam Sethi, a prominent Pakistani political analyst, said the longevity of Sharif’s coalition government depended on the army chief’s support.
“As things stand, the military leadership and the coalition parties have no choice but to stick together because both will lose if one falters. As long as General Asim Munir is the army chief, the Shehbaz-led government will survive periods of instability,” Mr. Sethi said.
Another challenge: The country’s economy has been on the brink of collapse for years, with inflation hitting a record high last spring. An International Monetary Fund bailout kept the economy afloat, but that program is set to expire this month and the new government will have to secure another long-term IMF plan.
Any potential deal – which Aqdas Afzal, an economist based in Karachi, said should be “in the neighborhood” of $6 billion to $8 billion – would likely require new austerity measures that could fuel public frustration.
In parliament, leaders of Mr. Khan’s party also vowed to act as a strong opposition — and potential spoiler.
“Our priority will be to free our leaders and bring them to Parliament,” Mr Ayub said, referring to Mr Khan and Shah Mahmood Qureshi, a former foreign minister who is also jailed.
Party supporters, emboldened by the election success, may also take to the streets to pressure the government to release Mr. Khan, who is serving multiple sentences on charges that include leaking state secrets. Mr Khan has vowed to appeal those convictions, which he says are politically motivated, and his party has promised legal challenges to some of the election results.
The new prime minister, speaking after Sunday’s vote, said the country faced huge challenges but also had opportunities. Noting that the economy remains the key challenge, he pledged to bring in investment and create a business-friendly environment.
Mr Sharif, whose first term as prime minister came after lawmakers ousted Mr Khan in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, is known for effective governance. He oversees several major infrastructure projects as chief minister of Punjab, the country’s largest province.
Unlike his brother Nawaz, who was prime minister for three terms and has clashed with the country’s generals several times, Mr Sharif has been kind to the military. In his previous tenure as prime minister, the military further strengthened its role in government and increased its influence in policy-making.
In June 2023, Mr Sharif approved the creation of a government council aimed at attracting foreign investment, a move widely seen as an attempt by the military to have a more direct say in economic policies. Army chief General Munir is a member of that body, the Special Investment Facilitation Board.
Mr. Sharif also approved a policy that gave the country’s intelligence agency the power to approve or deny appointments and postings of government officials. This has enhanced his pervasive influence not only in politics but also in public administration, analysts say.
In the wake of the election upset, analysts say the future role of the military is an open question. But most agree that a weak civilian government will make it easier for the generals to regain control and wield an even heavier hand politically if they choose.
“Civil-military relations in Pakistan – including military-society relations – will not, cannot be the same as they were,” said Adil Najam, professor of international affairs at Boston University. “What they will become is what is in the minds of every political player in Pakistan and it must be the best in the minds of the top forces of the Pakistan Army as well.”
