For all their bluster, no one in Donald J. Trump’s political inner circle believes a criminal conviction will help him with the independent voters and suburban women who lost him the presidency in 2020.
But since Mr. Trump was first indicted, he and his team have sought to secure the nomination as vital. And as he becomes the first former president of the United States to stand trial, some of those advisers — who have long realized that his freedom is tied to the outcome of the 2024 election — see a silver lining in the calendar.
On Thursday, a New York judge set a trial date of March 25 on charges brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg accusing Mr. Trump of falsifying business records to cover reimbursements for a hush payment. 2016 to a porn star who said she had a past relationship with him.
Legal observers have commented that, compared to the charges Mr. Trump faces for posting sensitive national security documents and obstructing efforts to retrieve them, or the charges that accuse him of conspiring to defraud the United States in trying to overturn an election, the silence The case of money seems much less heavy.
And these hush-hush charges represent a low-level felony and comparatively less likely jail time.
“There is absolutely no crime in this illegal case,” said Stephen Chung, a spokesman for Mr. Trump, insisting that it was an attempt to interfere in the election and that Mr. Bragg should “instead focus on cleaning up the New York”. and about local crime.
On a personal level, Mr. Trump is deeply unhappy about the case. It includes tidbits about his personal life and angered him when details of the hush money came to light in 2018 while he was president. He has made it clear to his partners that he wants to see it go away.
But politically, Mr. Trump’s advisers have used the money laundering indictment to great effect. It was his first indictment of four he faced in the 2024 primary cycle, sent fundraising through the roof and prompted horrified Republicans — including his opponents — to dispute the charges.
The Trump team’s approach since Bragg’s indictment was issued has been to portray his entire criminal record — 91 felony counts in all — as part of a grand conspiracy by President Biden and the Democrats to stop him.
“This is all coming from the Justice Department, this is all coming from Washington,” Mr. Trump said after the hearing to set the trial date, extending his baseless claim to several civil lawsuits he has faced. He had once again tried to delay the process, to no avail.
“It’s all rigged — it’s a rigged state, it’s a rigged city, it’s a disgrace,” Mr. Trump said, shortly after the judge, Judge Juan M. Merchan, said the case involved “serious allegations” of concealing a payment to influence elections.
Mr. Trump offered no backup for his claim that every legal case he has faced is a puppet from above and never happened.
And there is one major disadvantage for him in a local trial: Unlike in federal cases, Mr. Trump cannot try to pardon himself if he becomes president again. However, questions remain about the practical reality of imposing a prison sentence on an elected president in a local case.
And as a matter of raw political sights ahead of Election Day, the first hush money trial means a month of intense media attention focused on issues the public may care less about than they would if the federal overturning trial of the Washington election had gone first, as expected.
“You can find a lot of witnesses who will argue that this was not inappropriate, that it happens all the time, and actually being willing to pay for it is not an admission of any guilt, it’s that he didn’t want the publicity, and it happens quite often,” said Newt Gingrich, a former Republican speaker of the House and an ally of Mr. Trump.
Allies of Mr. Trump have repeatedly pointed to the fact that Mr. Bragg is a Democrat and that his predecessor, along with federal prosecutors, did not file charges related to the facts of the case to bolster his claims that he is a victim. (Mr. Bragg represents a district where Democrats make up the vast majority of registered voters).
Mr Trump complained on Thursday that the trial would keep him away from the campaign trail. But in January, he chose to attend two civil trials he was facing that he was not required to attend, in part because, an adviser said privately, he saw the appearances as campaign events.
The Trump campaign prepared to hold evening events with Mr. Trump in New York and other locations throughout the trial over the money.
“I can’t overstate this,” Mr. Gingrich said. “Donald Trump is not a candidate. Donald Trump is the leader of a movement, and the leaders of movements are profoundly different psychologically from the candidates.” The reason, he said, is because his supporters are “fans. They are not voters.”
Mr. Trump is about to test the limits of the benefits his political campaign can derive from the criminal justice system.
The key witness in the case, Michael D. Cohen, worked for Mr. Trump for years and testified at a House hearing in 2019 that helped the New York attorney general’s successful political fraud case against Mr. Trump and of his company. Mr. Trump and his allies have repeatedly denounced Mr. Cohen, who has revealed his experiences working for the former president in a book and in interviews.
A parade of other witnesses from that time period may also offer testimony that is problematic for him.
And in three separate Manhattan court cases, three juries have ruled against Mr. Trump or his companies in the past two years. While badmouthing Mr. Bragg may work with Republicans politically, it has no broader impact, some strategists argue.
“I think the mistake that Trump is making is that at the end of the day it’s not going to be Alvin Bragg, it’s going to be a jury of his fellow citizens, and Americans respect the jury system and take seriously the verdicts that juries deliver. said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster.
However, Mr. Trump was elected in 2016 despite a long streak of negative character-related incidents. And polls vary on how many of his supporters who say they will support him would abandon him if he is convicted in a criminal case.
“After the last eight years, that self-selection alone is enough to tell you that they’re not going to have much trouble explaining away a negative legal decision, let alone one on dubious grounds,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.
