US intelligence agencies have told their closest European allies that if Russia is going to launch a nuclear weapon into orbit, it will probably do so this year – but that instead it may launch a harmless “dummy” warhead into orbit to leave the West guessing his abilities.
The assessment came as U.S. intelligence officials conducted a series of hurried, classified briefings for their NATO and Asian allies as details of the U.S. assessment of Russia’s intentions began to leak.
US intelligence agencies are sharply divided over what President Vladimir Putin is up to, and on Tuesday Mr Putin rejected accusations that he intended to put a nuclear weapon into orbit and his defense secretary said the intelligence warning was manufactured in an effort to get Congress to approve more aid for Ukraine.
During a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu, Mr. Putin said that Russia had always been “categorically opposed” to placing nuclear weapons in space and had respected the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits weaponization of space, including placing nuclear weapons in orbit.
“Not only do we demand the observance of the existing agreements we have in this area,” he was quoted as saying by Russian state media, “but we have proposed many times to strengthen these joint efforts.”
On Wednesday, Mr. Putin reinforced the central role he believes Russia’s nuclear arsenal plays in the country’s defense: Visiting an aviation factory, he climbed into the bomb bay of a Tu-160M strategic bomber, the most modern in the Russian fleet.
Mr Putin has made no secret of his interest in upgrading Russia’s Cold War-era delivery systems, such as the bomber, which can reach the United States and is designed to carry 20 nuclear weapons. And he has touted a fleet of new weapons – some still under development – including the unmanned Poseidon nuclear torpedo, which was designed to cross the Pacific, unmanned, to detonate on the West Coast of the United States. (Russia has been less transparent about the accidents that accompanied the testing of these new weapons.)
But a space weapon would be different. Unlike the rest of the Russian or American arsenals, it would not be designed to hit cities or military sites or any place on Earth. Instead, it would be nested inside a satellite, capable of destroying swarms of commercial and military satellites orbiting alongside it in low-Earth orbit, including those like Starlink that are reshaping global communications capabilities. It was Ukraine’s ability to connect its government, military and leadership to Starlink that played a critical role in the country’s survival in the first months after the Russian invasion two years ago this week.
In the analysis provided by the United States to allies, American officials said that Mr. Putin may believe that the mere threat of mass disruption — even if it meant blowing up Russia’s satellites — could imbue his nuclear arsenal with a new kind of deterrent.
If the Tu-160 bomber that Mr. Putin boarded on Wednesday ever dropped its bombs on the United States or a NATO nation, retaliation would likely be swift. But Mr. Putin, American analysts told their counterparts, may believe that the old Cold War doctrine of “mutually assured destruction” would not apply in space: No one would risk a war over blowing up satellites, especially if there were human victims.
But US officials admit they have low confidence in their own analysis of whether Mr Putin is actually ready to launch a nuclear weapon into orbit. They concluded that Russia tested such a system in early 2022, around the time Mr Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. But it took some time for US intelligence to determine that the test was practice for putting a nuclear weapon into orbit.
Now those agencies are divided in their assessment of what might come next. Some believe Mr Putin may have fired a “virtual” gun, but it is not clear whether it was fake or real – making the answer even more difficult.
But the concern in Washington is great enough that Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken warned his Chinese and Indian counterparts last weekend that if a nuclear weapon were ever detonated in low-Earth orbit, it would take out their satellites. He urged them to use their influence with Mr Putin to prevent the weapon from ever being deployed.
Mr Shoigu, the defense chief, said on Tuesday that Russia was not violating the 1967 treaty but stopped short of talking about plans. “We don’t have nuclear weapons deployed in space, or elements of nuclear weapons used on satellites, or fields created to stop satellites from working effectively,” he said, according to Russian media.
“We don’t have any of that, and they know we don’t, but they’re still making noise,” he continued, at the meeting with Mr Putin. “The reason why the West is making this noise consists of two things: first, to scare senators and deputies, to raise funding supposedly not only for Ukraine, but also to confront Russia and subject it to a strategic defeat” .
“And secondly, in our view they would like to push us so clumsily into restarting the strategic stability dialogue,” he said, referring to talks that were briefly underway before the invasion of Ukraine to devise a successor to the New Treaty. START. which limits the number of total weapons that the US and Russia can develop. The treaty expires in two years.
These discussions also delve into new types of weapons and new technologies, including artificial intelligence, that could pose new nuclear threats. But the talks ended with the invasion of Ukraine and were never resumed.
