Coal, nickel, palm oil, rainforests.
Indonesia’s riches matter to the rest of the world. Therefore, the same applies to presidential elections.
Early results on Wednesday in the world’s third-largest democracy signaled the victory of Prabowo Subianto, a former army general linked to human rights abuses, as the country’s next president. The new administration’s approach to managing its natural resources could have a major impact on the world’s ability to keep global warming at relatively safe levels. Environmentalists are also watching what the vote might mean for their ability to operate freely in a country with a history of repression.
Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel and something the world must quickly stop burning in order to avoid the worst effects of global warming. But Indonesia also has huge reserves of nickel, which is critical for battery production and the transition to cleaner energy.
Mr Prabowo said he supported the country’s transition away from coal, albeit gradually. It also supports a ban on unwrought nickel exports, designed to encourage a domestic battery industry, which has been in place for several years.
These two initiatives conflict.
Processing nickel requires enormous amounts of energy. So Indonesia has started building new coal-fired power plants. This, in turn, increased Indonesia’s global warming greenhouse gas emissions.
Mr Prabowo has positioned himself as a candidate who would largely continue the policies of the outgoing president, Joko Widodo, whose government imposed a ban on nickel exports.
Indonesia’s global climate role is important in another way as well. The country has vast tracts of forests that are vital to the effort to slow global warming because they pull so much of the planet-warming carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
However, Indonesia is also the largest exporter of palm oil, which is used in a range of everyday products from soap to ice cream, and palm oil production has led to severe deforestation in recent decades. While deforestation rates have slowed recently, Mr Prabowo’s promises to produce more biofuels could quickly reverse those gains.
In short, what happens in Indonesia doesn’t stay in Indonesia.
Doubles on charcoal
Indonesia is a huge exporter of coal, with China as the main buyer. Coal is also critical to domestic energy: it provides the largest share of Indonesia’s electricity.
Indonesia is part of a $20 billion global deal, led by the United States, to retire some of Indonesia’s coal-fired power plants earlier than planned. That deal, called the Just Energy Transition Partnership, has yet to come up with concrete plans to shut down coal plants.
In fact, despite the deal to transition to coal, Indonesia’s coal fleet is expanding. Indonesia’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by more than 20 percent in 2022, the most recent year for which data is available, according to Climate Action Tracker, an independent organization that evaluates country-level emissions targets. He rated Indonesia’s climate targets as “critically inadequate”.
Nickel makes it a new energy powerhouse
Mr Joko’s administration has positioned Indonesia as central to the global transition to electric vehicles. Banning the export of nickel ore, vital for electric vehicle batteries, prompted international companies to invest in nickel processing in the country.
China obliged. Chinese company Tsingshan has set up factories to process nickel ore so it can be turned into electric vehicle batteries as well as other products such as stainless steel. But this increases carbon energy.
Backed by China, Indonesia is building a fleet of new coal-fired power plants to supply its booming nickel processing facilities. Refined nickel is more profitable than nickel ore, although it carries many social and environmental risks. A recent report by non-profit research and advocacy group Climate Rights International found that nickel mining and processing plants had violated the rights of indigenous communities and caused water and air pollution.
Mr Prabowo, on the campaign trail, said he would continue the mineral export ban. S&P Global, a firm that analyzes commodity trends, said the ban “will likely remain largely unchanged.”
Biofuels raise concerns about deforestation
Indonesia is already the world’s largest exporter of palm oil. Mr. Prabowo proposed the establishment of a separate oil palm ministry.
Mr Prabowo campaigned to expand biofuel production from crops such as palm oil, cassava and sugar cane. Environmentalists worry that the push for biofuels could lead to deforestation, reversing the gains Indonesia has made in protecting its rich forests.
Mr Prabowo, the current defense minister, was removed from the army after being linked to the kidnapping of political dissidents. His record on rights has raised concerns among climate activists. During the campaign, Mr. Prabowo dismissed such questions. He has never been charged in court.
If he is the eventual winner of Wednesday’s election, said Firdaus Cahyadi, an activist for 350.org, which advocates action on global warming, “it will make it difficult for civil society movements in Indonesia, including environmental and climate movements”.
