What is at stake in Pakistan’s elections?
Pakistan is holding its national elections today. Experts say it will be among the least reliable in the country’s history. Days before the vote, Imran Khan, who was ousted as prime minister in 2022, was sentenced to a total of 24 years in prison in two separate verdicts. The sentences were widely seen as part of a military-led campaign to sideline Khan’s political party.
Tensions are high. Yesterday, two separate blasts outside polling stations in an insurgency-hit area of Pakistan killed at least 22 people.
For more on the election, I reached out to Christina Goldbaum, our Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief.
What is the mood in Pakistan right now?
Christine: The military’s crackdown on Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, has made this one of the most innocent election cycles we’ve seen in Pakistan.
There was not the usual noisy campaign by political parties. Until a few weeks ago, many doubted that the election would actually take place in February.
Right now, many people feel discouraged by the military’s campaign of intimidation. A common refrain is that this is a “choice” — not an election — as in: The military has predetermined the winner. So why bother voting?
How did the military interfere in the elections?
The military was much more heavy-handed this time, largely because Khan managed to stage a remarkable comeback after being ousted and fueling widespread anger against the military among his supporters that turned violent in May.
Ahead of these elections, analysts tell me there was a sense among the top military that they needed to regain control.
They turned to their usual tactics: Arresting PTI leaders and pressuring them to denounce the party. But the military also cast a much wider net, arresting members of the elite who traditionally had strong ties to the military. They also arrested occasional supporters of the party, such as youths who posted pro-PTI messages on social media.
This had a real chilling effect, including in places like Punjab – the political heart of Pakistan – which had never experienced such a heavy hand from the military.
Who is expected to win?
Most people expect a victory for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, which is the party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif served as prime minister three times, but each term was cut short after falling out with the military.
What will you watch after the election?
The next prime minister is set to inherit an economic mess, not to mention an increase in terrorist attacks over the past two years. Once the elections are over, many hope the military will turn its attention to loosening militancy in the country’s tribal areas.
Since Khan was ousted, the military has also taken a greater role in shaping Pakistan’s economic policy. This could lead to friction with Sharif if he wins. He is known to be pro-business and built his reputation by reviving economic growth and building major infrastructure projects.
He has also pushed for more political control over government. This raises many questions about how long his current relationship with the military will last.
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“No solution but total victory” in Gaza
Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, yesterday rejected Hamas’s counter-proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza. He said that “giving in to ridiculous demands” would not restore Israel’s security or free the remaining hostages. “There is no solution except total victory,” he said. His comments appeared to undermine cautious hopes of progress towards a deal.
Record: In response to an offer negotiated by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, Hamas had submitted a proposal of its own. He outlined a path toward the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of the remaining Hamas hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
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A court was asked to resolve the bitter dispute.
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We mean that literally.
In the West African country, the plastic sandals known as lêkê (pronounced leh-keh) are the equipment of choice for pickup soccer — and just about everything else. Players praise the sandals for their practicality and comfort, although they must be replaced frequently, as the straps often break after just a few weeks.
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That’s it for today’s update. See you tomorrow. — Amelia
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Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter misstated the number of Israeli hostages taken on October 7 who died. A fifth of the remaining 136 hostages have died, not a fifth of the total, which was about 240.
