Senior intelligence officials warned on Monday that without additional US aid, Ukraine faced the prospect of continued battlefield losses as Russia relies on a network of critical weapons suppliers and sharply increases its supply of technology from China.
In public testimony during the annual survey of global threats facing the United States, the officials predicted that any continued delay in US aid to Ukraine would lead to additional territorial gains by Russia next year, the consequences of which would be felt not only in Europe but also in the Pacific.
“If we appear to be withdrawing support for Ukraine, this will not only fuel misgivings among our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. is going to fuel the Chinese leadership’s ambitions in contingencies ranging from Taiwan to the South China Sea,” William J. Burns, director of the CIA.
The assessment marked a sharp turnaround from just a year ago, when Ukraine’s military appeared on the march and the Russians appeared to be retreating.
During just two hours of testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mr. Burns and the director of national intelligence, Avril D. Haines, described an increasingly dire situation for Ukraine, where Russia is producing far more artillery shells. and has worked out a steady supply of drones, shells and other military items from two main suppliers.
“It is hard to imagine how Ukraine will be able to sustain the extremely tough advances it has made against the Russians, especially given the continued increase in production and purchases of Russian munitions from North Korea and Iran,” Ms Haines said. .
Mr Burns, who recently returned from his 10th visit to Ukraine, said the war there was at a crossroads, both for security in Europe and for US interests around the world.
If the House approved the $60 billion in security aid for Ukraine that passed the Senate, Mr. Burns said, Kiev could strike a strategic blow against Russia.
“It is our assessment that with additional assistance, Ukraine can remain at the forefront through 2024 and into early 2025,” he said. “That Ukraine can continue to burden Russia, not only with deep penetration raids in Crimea, but also against its fleet in the Black Sea.”
In the past six months, Mr Burns said, Ukraine had managed to sink 15 Russian ships.
With additional funding, Ukraine will be able to regain “offensive initiative” by the end of this year or early 2025, Mr. Burns said. Such a change, he added, would put Ukraine in a stronger position to negotiate with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
“Ukraine could maintain itself as a strong, sovereign, independent country, anchored in Western institutions and have the space and security to recover from this terrible attack and leave Russia to deal with the long-term consequences of of Putin’s brutal and senseless invasion. said Mr. Burns.
However, he made no mention of whether securing such space and security would eventually require Ukraine to cede territory in the south and east to Russia.
Intelligence officials made only a passing reference to the goal Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III set shortly after the war began in February 2022: that the West should leave Russia in a situation that would prevent it from invading again in a neighboring country. .
Ms Haynes noted that Russia had suffered more military casualties than at any time since World War II and had lost thousands of its most modern tanks and armored vehicles, “setting them back years”.
But both Ms. Haynes and Mr. Burns appeared to acknowledge that Mr. Putin had a high tolerance for the economic pain of sanctions and the political risk of continued high losses.
Instead, Mr. Burns described a situation on the ground that left Ukraine on the defensive, and perhaps in retreat. Without additional US aid, Ukraine will lose significant ground this year, Mr Burns said. He pointed to Ukraine’s hasty withdrawal from Avdiivka last month.
“Without additional aid in 2024, you will see more Avdiivkas,” he said. “And that, it seems to me, would be a huge and historic mistake for the United States.”
