U.S. officials say Ukraine will have to continue to develop innovative ways to hit Russian forces as the war approaches its third year. But Ukraine’s use of a Patriot missile to shoot down a plane last month is an example of how new battlefield tactics can be fraught with danger as well as promise.
Unbeknownst to the Ukrainian military, the Russian aircraft it targeted may have been carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war, according to US officials.
The Patriot is a defense system, typically used to protect a location rather than shoot down planes. A European partner provided the Patriot interceptor that shot down the Russian Ilyushin-76 cargo plane on January 24, according to US officials briefed on the incident.
Russian officials immediately claimed the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, who were to be exchanged for Russian servicemen.
Publicly, US officials would not comment on what brought down the plane, although officials who spoke privately on condition of anonymity said reports of a Patriot missile being used were accurate.
The question of who was on the plane is less clear. U.S. officials have not confirmed the identities of the passengers, but said it appears likely that at least some of them were Ukrainian prisoners. US and Ukrainian officials say Russia may have overstated the death toll.
If there were prisoners on board, as seems likely, US officials said the loss of life was regrettable.
Ukraine appears to have acted on legitimate but incorrect information. The plane had previously been used to transport missiles, making it a high-value target for Kiev, according to Western officials briefed on the information.
While the Patriot was fired from Ukraine, the cargo plane went down in Russia. Some US officials say they have encouraged Ukraine to strike well behind the front lines, but only on Ukrainian soil, mindful of the risk of escalation if US-made equipment is used in attacks on Russian soil.
However, US officials have not criticized Ukraine for using the Patriot system to target Russian aircraft in general. Instead, they said this is the kind of innovation Ukraine will need to embrace.
Last month, American military planners met with their Ukrainian counterparts in Wiesbaden, Germany, to discuss new tactics that could help change the dynamics of the war, which has been deadlocked for the past year.
One question is whether business with the Patriots is sustainable, especially if Congress cuts off further military aid to Ukraine. The Congressional Research Service estimates that each interceptor costs $4 million. If US funding is no longer available, air defense procurement is likely to come under pressure.
The Patriot was originally designed to strike aircraft, but was reengineered after the Gulf War to be used primarily to attack tactical ballistic missiles as these weapons grew in prevalence and importance on the battlefield.
The Ukrainians have returned the Patriot to its roots as an anti-aircraft weapon. In January, believing that the Russian cargo plane would be loaded with missiles, the Ukrainians ambushed it. They moved a Patriot launcher closer to the border and then shot down an interceptor when the cargo plane was in range. The tactic, US officials said, is creative but not revolutionary.
Ukrainian officials first floated the plan to use the Patriots against aircraft last spring, in part to try to slow Russia’s aerial bombardment. On May 13, the Ukrainians stealthily drove a Patriot launcher into an area near the Russian border and shot down five aircraft.
After that operation, Ukraine secretly moved a Patriot system to the south, where it was used to shoot down a Su-35, a Russian fighter jet, over the Black Sea.
Only months later, in November, Ukraine confirmed the operations, claiming that the use of the Patriot had, at least for a time, deterred Russian operations.
“They refrained from flying there for a while because they understood it was dangerous and they could be shot down,” Yuriy Ikhnat, an Air Force spokesman, told reporters in Ukraine. “The Patriot system provides such capabilities.”
During the winter, the pace of work seems to pick up once again. In December, the Ukrainians claimed to have shot down five Russian fighter jets.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said businesses had set “the right mood for the whole next year”, promising more to come. While the Ukrainians did not offer details on how they shot down the planes in December, military analysts said Patriot missiles were likely used.
The commander of a Patriot battery, speaking to The New York Times in December, said the deterrent effect of a Patriot battery was significant.
“When pilots know there’s a Patriot somewhere in the area, they’ll think 10 times whether to go there to work or not,” the commander said, insisting that only his first name, Volodymyr, be used for security reasons.
While he declined to discuss specific operations, he said “the Patriot has already demonstrated its range, a really long range, which allows it to shoot down these aircraft.”
Michael Schwirtz in New York, Anton Trojanowski in Berlin, Thomas Gibbons-Neff in London and Eric Schmidt in Washington contributed to the report.
