As Ukraine battles a fierce Russian offensive and its leaders wait to see if the West will approve more than $100 million in much-needed aid, the government in Kiev faces a stark distraction: turmoil in its top ranks centered on his fate the supreme military commander.
Speculation was rife Monday in political and military circles, the media and online that President Volodymyr Zelensky had fired the commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, with rumors becoming so widespread that the president’s office was forced to publicly deny them.
“There was no dismissal,” the president’s spokesman, Serhiy Nikiforov, told Ukrainian media.
“I can’t say anything else,” he said. When asked if the president intended to fire the general, Mr Nikiforov replied: “I repeat to you once again – there is no discussion.”
The sharp response only fueled further speculation that the president’s office had planned to fire General Zaluzhny but backed down after a furious backlash, and on Tuesday the capital was still consumed with whether the general would stay or go.
The general’s job has been in doubt since it became clear in the fall that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the country’s south had failed.
Ukraine’s former president and opposition leader, Petro O. Poroshenko, was one of several prominent politicians who were quick to address the rumours.
Defending General Zaluzhny, he said the military commander had become the personification of the unity needed across the country during two years of brutal fighting to save the nation from Russian subjugation.
The decision to step aside would not be motivated “by military and strategic reasons,” he said while on a trip to Brussels, adding: “It is based on emotion and jealousy.”
Around the same time he issued his statement on social media, Ukraine’s defense ministry issued a statement saying the speculation was baseless.
Along the front lines, where Ukrainians fight intense, bloody engagements every day, uncertainty about the general’s fate would be a morale blow, some soldiers who came by phone said. “Zaluzhny enjoys very high authority in the military,” said Lt. Pavlo Velychko, who serves in Ukraine’s 101st Territorial Defense Brigade. Firing the general, he said, would be “a message to commanders at all levels: No matter how well you do your job, you can be removed for no reason.”
The turmoil in the leadership ranks comes at a particularly precarious time for Ukraine in the war. Russia has stepped up attacks on the battlefield at the same time as it has stepped up its propaganda campaign aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in the West. Ukraine, meanwhile, is forced to wait to see how political interests in the United States and Europe affect its prospects of receiving desperately needed aid.
The conflict between Ukraine’s military and political leadership has been part of the conversation in Kiev for months, as has speculation about a change in the military leadership.
Neither the man nor their staff have done much to dispel reports of tension. While Mr Zelensky and General Zaluzhny have appeared together at photo opportunities and held events, the country’s two most powerful leaders have never addressed the nation together in any significant way.
Frozen relations and the lack of any explanation for the general’s position have become problems in themselves, said Volodymyr Ariev, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party. It was not typical of Mr. Zelensky, a former actor often praised for his communication skills, he said, adding: “Absence of communication is confirmation of a problem.”
Friction between the president and his top general has simmered, mostly behind the scenes, in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion and as General Zaluzhny’s popularity soared with military victories. Among Ukrainian political analysts, the general is seen as a likely challenger to Mr Zelensky if the elections, now suspended due to martial law, are repeated.
The rift deepened last autumn when General Zaluzhny published an essay declaring the fighting to be a stalemate, countering Mr Zelensky’s hopeful claims of progress. This breach followed a Ukrainian counterattack orchestrated with billions of dollars in Western weapons that failed to achieve a breakthrough while costing thousands of Ukrainian casualties.
More recently, the two have publicly disagreed over whether the political or military leadership should be responsible for a plan to draft up to half a million men to replenish the army. The draft is likely to be unpopular and taint the leaders most closely associated with it, Ukrainian commentators noted.
Rumors this week were of a slightly different nature – with the backlash quicker and more widespread than in the past.
While the Kremlin would certainly seek to exploit any turmoil in the Ukrainian administration to further undermine support for Ukraine, Moscow itself has turned to a rotating cast of military figures to lead its war effort.
President Vladimir V. Putin named Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov a year ago, firing Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who had been in the post for only three months. General Surovikin had replaced General Alexander Dvornikov.
General Gerasimov has not been seen in public this year, fueling rumors that he was injured or killed in a Ukrainian strike while visiting the occupied Crimean peninsula.
Ukrainian military intelligence has said it does not know whether Russia’s wartime leader is alive.
“This is information that requires careful additional verification,” said Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence ministry. “This would be very good news for all of us, but we are currently verifying it.”
Friction between civilian and military leadership has been a key element of many wars. President Abraham Lincoln fired Army of the Potomac commander General George B. McClellan in the Civil War, and during the Korean War, President Truman fired General Douglas MacArthur. But how military changes are handled is often critical to how they are perceived.
If any move to replace the general is seen as a purely political rather than a military necessity, Mr Zelensky may face backlash not only from opposition politicians but also from the public, which polls show holds General Zaluzny in the highest regard.
Maria Varenikova contributed reporting from Kiev, Ukraine.
