The economy is now in recession after barely growing for decades. The population continues to shrink, with births last year dipping to a nadir. The country’s politics seem frozen as one party keeps a virtual lock on power, no matter how scandalous and unpopular it becomes.
But don’t worry. This is Japan, where all bad news is relative.
Look around you. There are few signs of the social discord you might expect in a trend-lined place like Japan’s, such as piles of trash, potholes, or dots. The country remains remarkably stable and cohesive, with little sense of impending doom.
This honesty reflects a no-rock-bottom mentality: “Souganai” – “it can’t be helped” – is something of a national refrain.
It’s easy to see why people might be indifferent. Unemployment is low, trains run on time, and cherry trees bloom every spring. Tourists are flooding the shrines and shopping areas, and the stock market has reached record highs. Even after splurging a bit, you can eat a bowl of ramen for less than $7 or a multi-course lunch set for around $12. Housing is generally affordable even in Tokyo, and everyone is covered by national health insurance. Crime is low: In 2022, there were just three gun murders across Japan. If you forget your cell phone in a restaurant, chances are it will be there when you get back.
“I’m very happy with my living conditions,” said Chihiro Tsujimoto, 26, a classical percussionist who had left a movie theater with his sister in Chofu, western Tokyo, last week. The Japanese, he said, “have resigned themselves and feel rather happy as long as their lives are full and good.”
“I suppose Japan is at peace,” he added. “So the new generation doesn’t feel they need to change this country.”
This soothing sense of calm is enhanced by an outside world plagued by war and social challenges.
“I make frequent business trips to the US and Europe and feel that the Japanese society and system is very stable compared to other countries with various problems such as immigrants, high crime rates and riots,” said Hisashi Miwa, 65, who works for a chemical manufacturer and was out shopping for toilet paper in Setagaya, also in western Tokyo.
However, beneath Japan’s calm surface, many entrenched problems remain. With its intense work culture and social pressures, Japan is among the unhappiest of developed countries, according to an annual UN-backed report, and suicide is a major concern. Gender inequality is deep-rooted and slow to change, and the poverty rate among single-parent households is one of the highest among rich nations. Rural areas are rapidly emptying out and an aging population will increasingly weigh on pensions and care burdens.
Next year, nearly one in five people in Japan will be 75 or older, a phenomenon that will further expose labor shortages in a country struggling to accept and integrate immigrants. Already, service gaps are appearing at some of the nation’s most beloved institutions.
“It takes four or five days to receive a letter,” said Sayuri Shirai, a political management professor at Keio University, referring to Japan’s postal service, which reliably delivers letters a day after they are mailed.
When he has problems with cable TV or other utilities, he said, “sometimes you want to ask questions on the phone, but there’s no more phone-related services.”
“I can actually see they’re not crowded,” Ms. Shirai said. “The quality of service is not that good anymore.”
Such sufferings, however, are more of an irritation than a sign of impending social collapse. Japan’s decline has been gradual, and in some ways barely noticeable, since the country soared to wealth in the decades following World War II.
The economy — now the world’s fourth largest after falling below Germany’s this month — has been bobbing up and down but has largely overcome a national debt ratio that is the highest in the world. The population is shrinking by about half a percent a year, but Tokyo remains the world’s most populous city, people wait in line for an hour to score a trendy doughnut, and reservations at top restaurants must be made weeks in advance. Prime ministers may come and go, but they are replaceable emissaries of the status quo.
“I think everyone kind of knows what’s coming, but it’s so slow that it’s very difficult to somehow support a huge change,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a politics professor at Waseda University in Tokyo.
Even those who think Japan could use a turnaround are more resigned than radicalized.
“I thought the Japanese were a little smarter, but our economy, which was once said to be first-rate, is now second- or third-rate, and our government may not even be fourth- or fifth-rate,” he said. Fuchi Beppu, 76, a retired hotelier walking near Yokohama Station last week.
He said he felt sorry for his children and grandchildren and the future that awaited them.
“At the end of the day, it’s a democracy,” he said. “So I guess the level of government reflects the level of citizens.”
This government, for almost the entire post-war era, was led by the Liberal Democratic Party or LDP
The party’s disapproval ratings are now very high — the highest since 1947, according to a newspaper poll. But even when people are disillusioned with the LDP, in the end they “don’t really care as long as they can survive and everyday life isn’t so bad,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. “That’s why the LDP policy is very stable.”
Current approval ratings reflect public anger at a financial scandal that has gripped Japanese media but has been too arcane for most of the public to follow in detail.
Allegations began to emerge late last fall that several factions within the LDP had not accounted for the full amount of revenue from ticket sales to male politicians. In some cases, members of parliament appeared to receive kickbacks from some of the sales, and prosecutors indicted three lawmakers, accusing them of violations of the Political Fund Control Act.
However, unlike other countries where politicians have been accused of outrageous acts of corruption, the Japanese media has uncovered relatively tame evidence of campaign gifts and dinners. Some news reports suggest a lawmaker may have used political funds to buy books, including thousands of copies of a title he wrote.
With the political opposition in disarray, the LDP looks likely to survive another one of its own numerous goals. One reason: Voters just aren’t very connected.
“I don’t know who my mayor is or I don’t check the news much,” said Mr. Tsujimoto, the percussionist. “I just watch news on the internet about things like when some animal’s new baby is born at a zoo.”
