The death of Alexei A. Navalny, reported by authorities in Moscow on Friday, ushers in a new twist for President Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia, underscoring both the power of the Kremlin and the potential for instability that continues to threaten it.
The announcement came just a month before Russia’s presidential election, when the Kremlin will try to present Russians united behind Mr Putin and his bid for a fifth term. Analysts expect the Kremlin to try to link its confident election victory with fresh gains on the front in Ukraine, where Russian forces are taking the initiative against a Ukrainian army struggling to retain Western support.
As the third year of the war approaches, Mr Putin’s control over domestic politics appears almost total, with his most prominent surviving opponents either in prison or in exile. Street protests are promptly suppressed and thousands of Russians have been prosecuted for criticizing the war.
By offering high salaries to recruits, the Kremlin was able to carry out its invasion without resorting to a second military army, meaning that most Russians were able to go about their daily lives. Extensive Western sanctions have not crippled Russia’s economy.
But for some analysts, the reports of Mr Navalny’s death – which his aides said they feared were likely true – are a reminder that Mr Putin’s power may be weaker than it appears.
“Navalny tended to feel the vulnerabilities, rather than create them,” Moscow political analyst Mikhail Vinogradov said in a telephone interview on Friday, saying Mr. Putin had responsibilities, such as corruption, that provided an opening for an opportunistic opponent. Mr Vinogradov called the day’s news the most shocking death of a Russian politician in the country’s post-Soviet history.
The circumstances of Mr. Navalny’s death are murky. But citing the widely held view that the Kremlin was essentially responsible for Mr Navalny’s death — which President Biden also supported in comments on Friday afternoon — Mr. Vinogradov added that the news could further unsettle Russia’s ruling class. It could remind them, he said, from the unusual steps the government would take to silence dissent. Such repression, he said, “is always an experiment.”
The simmering discomfort with Mr. Putin’s war and crackdown on the opposition has been visible repeatedly in recent months, even as polls continue to show broad support — or at least acceptance — of the invasion of Ukraine. There was the surprise popularity of a little-known anti-war candidate for the upcoming presidential election and the movement of wives of mobilized soldiers demanding the return of their husbands.
Before that, there was the stunning, 24-hour uprising last summer led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, a threat that Mr. Putin apparently responded to, US intelligence agencies estimate, by shooting down the mercenary leader’s plane last August. That episode underscored the potential for Mr. Putin to spiral out of control at a moment’s notice, as well as the continued demand among many Russian citizens for a charismatic leader who could represent an alternative.
A key question now is whether the Kremlin is following Mr Navalny’s death with a new round of repression and censorship. Even in death, political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said on Friday, Mr. Navalny poses a problem for the Kremlin.
“Much will depend on whether the regime overreacts, which may become an issue in itself,” Ms. Stanovaja wrote. “They will have to deal with Navalny’s legacy.”
The power of that legacy was already on display within hours of Mr Navalny’s reported death, as Russians gathered for impromptu vigils in cities around the world and social media filled with reports of people in Russia laying flowers in his memory. .
Outside the Russian Embassy in Berlin, a former Kremlin adviser turned opposition leader, Marat Guelman, said he believed Mr Navalny’s death had the potential to reinvigorate Russia’s beleaguered and disparate opposition groups.
“I hope,” he said, “that in Russia, one hero will be replaced by 100 heroes.”
Tatiana Firsova contributed reporting.
