As Democrats try to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, their race will begin in full swing with Tuesday’s California primary.
And their immediate problem is not the Republicans. It’s the Democrats themselves.
In the Republican-held Central Valley district stretching from Bakersfield to Fresno, which would favor President Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020, a battle between two Democrats has become so personal that some in the party fear they could split the vote, leaving the incumbent, David Valladao, to compete in November with another Republican running to his right, Chris Mathis.
With so few truly contested seats up for grabs this year, the prospect of an early lockout in California — where the top two finishers regardless of party affiliation compete in the general election — has brought out some heavy hitters, including Dolores Huerta, the 93-year-old labor leader and civil rights activist who co-founded the United Farm Workers with Cesar Chavez in 1962. He is suiting up again on behalf of former California Rep. Rudy Salas, the top choice of establishment Democrats. So is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will rally voters for Mr. Salas on Sunday in an effort to unseat the other Democratic candidate, State Sen. Melissa Hurtado.
“I’m scared,” Ms. Huerta said Thursday from the unassuming offices of her foundation, which is based in Bakersfield. “We have a lot more work to do.”
Congressional control could be compromised. Of the 16 House districts Mr. Biden won but are currently in Republican hands, five are in California, making the state a linchpin of the party’s hopes of retaking the chamber, where Republicans currently hold a majority three seats.
“It’s going to come down to these swings, and Democrats will have to win about two-thirds of them to get a majority,” said Erin Covey, a House analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Only two of those 16 districts targeted by Democrats — Virginia’s Tidewater and Omaha — are in states with Republican governors.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, estimated that two-thirds of the battle for control of the House will take place in states largely unaffected by the presidential election. With no push from the presidential establishment and get-out-the-vote efforts, NRCC officials have established 24 field offices — the most ever — figuring they are on their own in defending the slim GOP majority.
Republicans have made it clear they are willing to prosecute their case in blue territory. Conservatives have made gains in such states — especially Southern California and Long Island and other New York suburbs — by tackling crime, the high cost of living and the influx of immigrants. A major drive for Democrats, abortion, has not had as much of an impact in states where voters view abortion rights as protected.
However, Democrats will play at home, with strong state organizations and weak Republican Party structures. And they insist they are playing with a strong hand: the threat posed to abortion rights and other freedoms, including in Democratic states, by an all-Republican administration with Mr. Trump at its helm. The possibility of a Trump White House and a Republican Senate could make the House a lone bulwark against total Republican control of Washington.
Democratic candidates say they understand they have to fight Republicans on issues like immigration. Will Rollins, a 39-year-old former federal prosecutor and Justice Department official who wants to unseat Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., said the GOP had given his party a “gift” when Republicans, at the behest of Mr. Trump , rejected a painstakingly negotiated bipartisan deal on border security that was drafted in part by members of his own party.
“It’s our job to make those arguments and address issues that Republicans believe have the highest ground: borders, inflation and crime,” said Mr. Rollins, who ran in the same district around Palm Springs. Two years ago. . He lost to Mr Calvert, 70, by four points.
Mr Calvert expressed confidence that nothing would change this time. “Voters weren’t buying what Rollins was selling last time,” he said, “and they certainly aren’t interested this time around in his radical, soft-on-crime policies.”
Generally speaking, Democrats are starting at a slight numerical disadvantage when it comes to retaking the House. Gerrymandering and the natural sorting of voters between dense urban areas that are heavily Democratic and vast rural areas that are heavily Republican have left little to play for.
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has rated just 10 Republican seats as violations, nine of them in states with Democratic governors. Democrats hold only nine at-large seats, and only one in a state with a Republican governor.
Democrats would need five seats to win control of the House, and their main targets in California are the districts held by Mr. Valadao and Representatives John Duarte, Mike Garcia and Michelle Steel.
With so few opportunities, an unforced error that threw Democrats out of the game in Mr. Valladão’s district would be a big one. In an interview, Mr. Salas did not rule out the possibility if Republicans turn out in force to vote in a Super Tuesday presidential primary where Democrats appear to have less at stake.
“This could be a real scenario,” he said in an interview on Friday.
Ms. Hurtado was unapologetic in an interview last week about the chile relleno at La Imperial Taqueria in Wasco, Calif., a town of 28,000 — if you count the prison population — that is currently surrounded by miles of blossoming almond trees.
“Obviously, I wasn’t the chosen one,” she said with a shrug. “But I like being the underdog.”
Democrats have improved their standing in at least one California House race. Mr. Garcia’s district in north Los Angeles County, which was redrawn in 2022, would have given Mr. Biden an edge over Mr. Trump by more than 12 percentage points. But voters in the district nominated the same Democratic candidate, Christy Smith, three times over Mr. Garcia, and in each contest, Mr. Garcia won.
This time, Democrats have opened the field for a new challenger, George Whitesides, former NASA chief of staff and former CEO of private space company Virgin Galactic. Mr. Whitesides has raised nearly $3.7 million, $271,000 of his own money. Mr. Garcia has raised $3.2 million.
In an interview, Mr. Whitesides hit out at Mr. Garcia for selling up to $50,000 in Boeing stock weeks before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee released its highly critical investigation into the company’s 737 Max jet and talked about its own of record in aerospace. in a district that relied on industry.
“The fact that I’ve created 700 jobs in the area also helps a lot,” he said.
But infighting continues elsewhere. In a tight race for the Orange County seat vacated by Rep. Katie Porter, D-D., State Sen. Dave Minn is battling political activist Joanna Weiss. Ms. Weiss has the backing of the pro-Israel United Republic Plan and Emily’s List, which works to elect female abortion-rights candidates. Those outside groups have raised more than $4 million against Mr. Min, Ms. Covey said, and have published allegations of drunken driving and racism against him that will not make it any easier for Democrats to hold onto the seat.
That makes the competition in the Central Valley stand out even more. When Democrats persuaded Mr. Salas to run in 2022, he was seen as a valuable recruit, a popular state lawmaker who could be the first Latino to represent the heavily Hispanic Central Valley.
That year, the drama was on the Republican side. Democrats tried to intervene in the so-called jungle primary by boosting Mr. Mathis, a staunch Trump supporter, in ads, hoping a far-right candidate would be easier to defeat than Mr. Valladão, who was one of only 10 Republicans who voted to charge Mr. Trump with inciting the January 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill. Did not work. Mr. Valadao beat Mr. Mathis by 1,220 votes for a distant second place behind Mr. Salas, then reclaimed the Democrat’s best position on Election Day by three points.
Democrats were poised to give Mr. Salas another shot at the presidential election this year, but Emily’s List persuaded Ms. Hurtado to run as well, pointing to her data showing her vote totals in State Senate races exceeded votes of Mr. Salas in his campaign for Parliament.
Washington then picked sides, fearing that Ms Hurtado’s rise could leave Mr Valadao and Mr Mathys as the top two finishers on Tuesday.
House Majority PAC, the super PAC of House Democratic leadership, is running Spanish-language ads promoting Mr. Salas’ record on health care, while Mr. Salas, encouraged by Washington Democrats, went on the air with an ad that portrays Ms. Hurtado as hostile to abortion rights, for abstaining or not voting on the issue in the State Senate. That was a painful outlay for a candidate who has raised less than $747,000.
Ms. Hurtado, who has weathered more than $1 million worth of ads against her candidacy, has raised about a tenth of Mr. Salas’ total, $76,741. And Emily’s List doesn’t include her as a candidate. But with the name recognition of a state senator whose district matches the US House district 95% of the time, Democrats are sweating it.
Ms. Hurtado is not, hoping that Mr. Salas’ negative ads will actually help her, especially with independent and Republican voters who have supported her in the past.
“If they were going to pick a side, they should have faced it,” he said. “They could say, ‘Step aside.’ They never did.”
