Arab countries, from the United Arab Emirates and Oman to Jordan and Egypt, have tried for months to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas, especially after it widened to include armed groups backed by Iran and deeply embedded in the Arab people. Some of them, like the Houthis, also threaten Arab governments.
But the drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, which put the entire region on alert, made the new reality inescapable: Unlike previous Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, even those involving Israel and Lebanon or Syria , it continues to expand.
“Part of why these wars have been contained is that they haven’t been a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Radha Slim, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “But now we’re entering this era where a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran — which could drag the region into conflict and which could drag the U.S. — now that the prospect of a regional war is constantly on the table.”
For now, the only countervailing force is the desire of both the United States and its longtime foe Iran to avoid widening the conflict, said Joost Hiltermann, director of the International Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa program.
“I am excited by the fact that the only ones who want a war are Israel and Hamas,” he said. “The Iranians are still talking to the Americans,” he said, referring to messages sent in recent days between the two by intermediaries such as Switzerland and Oman.
Iran’s message, Mr. Hilterman said, made it clear that they were trying to show their strength, not expand the war. “They said, ‘There will be an attack, but we will keep it contained.’
But for the citizens of Arab countries, many of whom watched dozens of drones and missiles cross their skies on Saturday, professions of wanting to avoid a wider war are a thin thread by which to hang their futures. Dismay at the attack was evident in many public comments, but also in private, although others celebrated it.
Officials and analysts in the region were divided over whether Iran’s attack would prompt countries with long-standing ties to the United States to push for even more engagement — and security guarantees — from Washington or distance themselves in an effort to protect themselves from an attack by Iran itself.
Most called for de-escalation in the strongest terms. The only exceptions in the Arab world were northern Yemen, whose de facto Houthi government is close to Iran, and Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed armed group.
Oman said it was vital to reach an immediate ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas that has been raging for the past six months in the Gaza Strip. Kuwait “stressed the need to address the root causes” of conflicts in the region.
And Saudi Arabia, which has sought to cultivate relatively warm ties with Iran since the two countries restored diplomatic ties last year, said it was “extremely concerned” about the dangerous consequences of military escalation in the region. A statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked all involved to “exercise maximum restraint and protect the region and its people from the dangers of war”.
Even before the Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza war on October 7, Arab countries were adjusting their geopolitical relations. Their concern was that they may no longer be able to rely on a US administration that is increasingly focused on Asia as Iranian-backed armed groups become more active.
Arab leaders’ discomfort has only increased with the Israeli assault on Gaza, which the United States has defended but its own citizens find loathing, said Renad Mansour, a senior fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program.
For Saudi Arabia, this meant establishing diplomatic relations with Iran, despite intense rivalries and Iranian missile attacks on Saudi infrastructure as recently as 2019. Saudi Arabia’s approach to Iran has been facilitated by China, which has recently worked to expand influence in the region. Many Arab countries have turned to China in pursuit of business and diplomatic relations.
Then the war in Gaza began, drawing the Gulf states, along with Egypt and Jordan, more directly into the dynamics of a conflict they were desperate to avoid.
Now, Jordan finds itself shooting down Iranian missiles – and then being accused of defending Israel. Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, often accused of being indiscriminate, has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians, more than two-thirds of them women and children. About 1,200 people were killed in Israel in the Hamas attack.
On Sunday, Jordan’s government came under fire both at home and from neighboring Arab countries for shooting down at least one of the Iranian missiles aimed at Israel. A former Jordanian information minister, Samih al-Maaytah, defended the decision.
“It is Jordan’s duty to protect its lands and citizens,” Mr al-Maaytah said. “What Jordan did yesterday was simply to protect its airspace.”
He also said that “Jordan’s position in this conflict is that it is between two parties for influence and interests: Iran and Israel.”
While Gulf oil exports have largely escaped attack as they flow through the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, Houthi attacks on shipping lanes there — linked to the war in Gaza — have driven up costs and increased tensions.
It is unclear whether the conflict between Israel and Iran will further strain the relatively new ties between Israel and some Arab states. Since the war in Gaza began, those relations have cooled, but it appears that none of the Arab governments that recently forged ties with Israel are ready to abandon them entirely.
Two of the countries that signed the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – have in some cases halted business deals or publicly distanced themselves from the country since the start of the war in Gaza. And Saudi Arabia, which has been exploring the possibility of diplomatic normalization with Israel, insisted that any deal would require creating an “irreversible” path to a Palestinian state, an unlikely prospect in Israel’s current political climate.
That distancing is likely to continue, analysts say, but so far no one has severed ties with Israel or, in the case of Saudi Arabia, cut them off entirely.
One reason Saudi Arabia remains open to a future relationship with Israel is that now more than ever, the Saudis hope for a security guarantee from the United States in the event of an attack by Iran, said Yasmin Farooq, a non-resident scholar. at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington research group.
“What Western countries led by the US did to protect Israel yesterday is exactly what Saudi Arabia wants for itself,” Ms Farouk said.
He added that despite Saudi Arabia’s history of hostility with Iran, the hardening of Saudi public opinion against Israel and the United States over the Gaza war is changing the calculations of Saudi leaders. Their focus now is to pressure the United States to force Israel to end the war.
Perhaps the most striking development in the region is the growing push by some Arab countries to join in forging diplomatic solutions to prevent the region from descending into a wider war. Arab countries held a conference in Riyadh in November to discuss how best to use their influence to end the conflict.
Qatar and Oman have become increasingly active behind the scenes in seeking to broker a cease-fire in Israel and renew diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States to prevent the outbreak of a destabilizing wider conflict.
Qatar’s close ties to Hamas, Iran and the United States have made its ministers and senior officials central to shuttle diplomacy. And Oman has become a conduit for messages between the United States and Iran. In recent days, Washington has communicated with Tehran through messages carried by Oman and the Swiss, according to a senior security official in Iraq and a senior U.S. administration official in Washington, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak. public.
The new question, said Ms. Slim of the Middle East Institute, is which country can play the role of mediator and negotiator between Israel and Iran.
“The rules have changed, the red lines have changed and they have to be able to communicate,” Ms Slim said.
Hwaida Saad and Eric Schmidt contributed to the report.
